Individual differences in reverse Hindsight bias
I never thought something like chernobyl would happen. Did I
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12166377 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Bas Verplanken (0000-0001-7217-0293, Leiden University, corresponding author), Rik Pieters (Erasmus University Rotterdam), Rik G M Pieters |
| Year | 1988 |
| Volume | 1 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 131-147 |
| Publication date | 1988-07-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Behavioral Decision Making (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0894-3257 • E-ISSN: 1099-0771 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1002/bdm.3960010302 |
| OpenAlex | W1989614357 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 7 |
| References cited | 31 |
Hindsight bias was studied in the context of the accident in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which took place on April 26th 1986. An individual difference factor which relates to the motivation to process information, need for cognition, was expected to moderate the occurrence of hindsight bias. Probability estimates of many casualties due to the use of nuclear power in The Netherlands were obtained from 212 individuals two months before the accident in Chernobyl. These estimates were compared with similar estimates made in hindsight by the same individuals five months after the accident. Loglinear Analyses reveal a systematic hindsight bias. However, the direction of the bias was contrary to expectations. In hindsight, individuals gave lower probabilities than they actually did two months before the Chernobyl accident. These results reveal a reverse hindsight bias. As hypothesized, need for cognition moderates hindsight bias: individuals low and medium in need for cognition express a systematic reverse hindsight bias, while individuals high in need for cognition do not. High need for cognition individuals also show higher literal consistency between the two measurements, which supports a memory explanation of the moderating effect of need for cognition
Cognition · Cognitive bias · Cognitive psychology · Consistency (knowledge bases · Context (archaeology · Geography · Hindsight bias · Response bias · Computer Science · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Media Influence and Health · Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies · Neuroscience · Psychology · Social Psychology · Artificial Intelligence
Decision making
Discrete Multivariate Analysis
Conflict, arousal, and curiosity.
The Efficient Assessment of Need for Cognition
I knew it would happen
Hindsight is not equal to foresight
For those condemned to study the past
Motivational interpretations of hindsight bias
Salience and Hindsight Biases in Judgements of World Events
Second Guessing' Important Events
Cognitive biases in blaming the victim
Central and peripheral routes to persuasion
Reconstructing the past
Effects of need for cognition on message evaluation, recall, and persuasion
Availability
The need for cognition
Individual and situational differences in desire for certainty
An experimental investigation of need for cognition
Central and Peripheral Routes to Advertising Effectiveness
| Unique citing works | 7 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,19 |
| Citation span | 1990 - 2014 (25) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 6 |