Correcting the Actual Reproduction Number
A Simple Method to Estimate R0 from Early Epidemic Growth Data
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15498697 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Hiroshi Nishiura (0000-0003-0941-8537, Utrecht University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2010 |
| Volume | 7 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 291-302 |
| Publication date | 2010-01-21 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601 |
| Publisher | Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH) |
| DOI | 10.3390/ijerph7010291 |
| PMID | 20195446 |
| PMCID | PMC2819789 |
| OpenAlex | W2123665197 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 29 |
The basic reproduction number, R(0), a summary measure of the transmission potential of an infectious disease, is estimated from early epidemic growth rate, but a likelihood-based method for the estimation has yet to be developed. The present study corrects the concept of the actual reproduction number, offering a simple framework for estimating R(0) without assuming exponential growth of cases. The proposed method is applied to the HIV epidemic in European countries, yielding R(0) values ranging from 3.60 to 3.74, consistent with those based on the Euler-Lotka equation. The method also permits calculating the expected value of R(0) using a spreadsheet
Basic reproduction number · Biology · Econometrics · Economics · Epidemic model · Estimation · Exponential growth · Mathematical analysis · Maximum likelihood · Measure (data warehouse · Population · Reproduction · Simple (philosophy · Statistics · Computer Science · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Demography · HIV/AIDS Impact and Responses · Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models · Mathematics · Applied Mathematics · Ecology
| Citations per year | 1.5 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2024 - 2024 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |