Skip to main content

ETHNOS_APP

Home • Search • Journals • List 0

Changes in the Effect of Heat on Mortality in the Last 20 Years in Nine European Cities. Results from the PHASE Project

Bibliographic Data

ID15499746
AuthorsFrancesca De’ Donato (Agenzia Regionale Parchi, corresponding author), Michela Leone (Agenzia Regionale Parchi), Matteo Scortichini (0000-0002-6413-7706, Agenzia Regionale Parchi), Manuela De Sario (0000-0002-1117-2735, Agenzia Regionale Parchi), Klea Katsouyanni (0000-0002-0132-9575, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens), Timo Lanki (0000-0002-3380-9717, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare), Xavier Basagaña (0000-0002-8457-1489, Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Ferran Ballester (0000-0002-6165-3465, Universitat Jaume I), Christofer Åström (0000-0003-4208-0718, Umeå University), Anna Páldy (0000-0002-9166-7374, Orszagos Kornyezetegeszsegugyi Intezet), Mathilde Pascal (0000-0003-4744-5923, Institut de Veille Sanitaire), Antonio Gasparrini (0000-0002-2271-3568, University of London), Bettina Menne (0000-0002-3135-2290), Paola Michelozzi (0000-0002-1646-2555, Agenzia Regionale Parchi)
Year2015
Volume12
Issue12
Pages15567-15583
Publication date2015-12-08
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601
PublisherMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3390/ijerph121215006
PMID26670239
OpenAlexW2192321333
LanguageEN
Citations received28
References cited13

The European project PHASE aims to evaluate patterns of change in the temperature-mortality relationship and in the number of deaths attributable to heat in nine European cities in two periods, before and after summer 2003 (1996-2002 and 2004-2010). We performed age-specific Poisson regression models separately in the two periods, controlling for seasonality, air pollution and time trends. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the Relative Risks of daily mortality for increases in mean temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile of the summer distribution for each city. In the recent period, a reduction in the mortality risk associated to heat was observed only in Athens, Rome and Paris, especially among the elderly. Furthermore, in terms of heat-attributable mortality, 985, 787 and 623 fewer deaths were estimated, respectively, in the three cities. In Helsinki and Stockholm, there is a suggestion of increased heat effect. Noteworthy is that an effect of heat was still present in the recent years in all cities, ranging from +11% to +35%. In Europe, considering the warming observed in recent decades and population ageing, effective intervention measures should be promoted across countries, especially targeting vulnerable subgroups of the population with lower adaptive resources

Climate change · Distributed lag · Environmental health · Geography · Percentile · Poisson regression · Population · Statistics · Air Quality and Health Impacts · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Demography · Global Health Care Issues · Mathematics · Medicine · Ecology

  • Mapping heat-sensitive multimorbidity and adaptation mismatch with equity-oriented GeoAI techniques

    Open Access•Binbin Peng, Fei Li•Sustainable Cities and Society•2026

  • Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022

    Open Access•Joan Ballester, Marcos Quijal-Zamorano et al.•Nature Medicine•2023

  • The effectiveness of heat prevention plans in reducing heat-related mortality across Europe

    Open Access•Aleš Urban, Veronika Huber et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2025

  • Spatial Patterns of Human Thermal Comfort Conditions in Russia

    Mikhail Varentsov, Natalia Shartova et al.•Weather, Climate, and Society•2020

  • The impact of temperature changes on the health vulnerability of migrant workers

    Open Access•Ting Liang, Zilin Ai et al.•Frontiers in Public Health•2025

  • Impact of community education on heat-related health outcomes and heat literacy among low-income communities in Karachi, Pakistan

    Open Access•Junaid Abdul Razzak, Priyanka Agrawal et al.•BMJ Global Health•2022

  • Viability of public spaces in cities under increasing heat

    Open Access•Kathrin Foshag, Nicole Aeschbach et al.•Sustainable Cities and Society•2020

  • From heatwaves to ‘healthwaves’

    Open Access•Doruntina Zendeli, Nicola Colaninno et al.•Sustainable Cities and Society•2025

  • Climate Matters—Association Between Ambient Temperature During Pregnancy and Birth Length in Austria Between 1984 and 2014—A Population‐Based Study

    Open Access•Thomas Waldhoer, Kirchengast et al.•American Journal of Human Biology•2026

  • Short-Term Effects of Heat on Mortality and Effect Modification by Air Pollution in 25 Italian Cities

    Open Access•Matteo Scortichini, Manuela De Sario et al.•International Journal of…•2018

  • Stakeholders’ Perception on National Heatwave Plans and Their Local Implementation in Belgium and The Netherlands

    Open Access•Joris Adriaan Frank Van Loenhout, Joris Van Loenhout et al.•International Journal of…•2016

  • Analysis of Mortality Change Rate from Temperature in Summer by Age, Occupation, Household Type, and Chronic Diseases in 229 Korean Municipalities from 2007–2016

    Open Access•Jong‐Chul Park, Jongchul Park et al.•International Journal of…•2019

  • Awareness, Risk Perception, and Protective Behaviors for Extreme Heat and Climate Change in New York City

    Open Access•Jaime Madrigano, Kathryn Lane et al.•International Journal of…•2018

  • Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries

    Open Access•Vladimir Kendrovski, Michela Baccini et al.•International Journal of…•2017

  • Synergistic Effects of Ambient Temperature and Air Pollution on Health in Europe

    Open Access•Antonis Analitis, Francesca De’ Donato et al.•International Journal of…•2018

  • Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate—Magnitude and Determinants

    Open Access•Christofer Åström, Daniel Oudin Åström et al.•International Journal of…•2017

  • Biometeorological Assessment of Mortality Related to Extreme Temperatures in Helsinki Region, Finland, 1972–2014

    Open Access•Reija Ruuhela, Kirsti Jylhä et al.•International Journal of…•2017

  • Heat and emergency room admissions in the Netherlands

    Open Access•Joris Adriaan Frank Van Loenhout, Tefera Darge Delbiso et al.•BMC Public Health•2018

  • Changes in ambient temperature increase hospital outpatient visits for allergic rhinitis in Xinxiang, China

    Open Access•Gao Jian-hui, Jianhui Gao et al.•BMC Public Health•2021

  • Trends in Temperature-associated Mortality in São Paulo (Brazil) between 2000 and 2018

    Open Access•Aina Roca-Barceló, Daniela Fecht et al.•Journal of Urban Health•2022

  • Influence of blocking on Northern European and Western Russian heatwaves in large climate model ensembles

    Open Access•Nathalie Schaller, Jana Sillmann et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2018

  • Ozone and heat-related mortality in Europe in 2050 significantly affected by changes in climate, population and greenhouse gas emission

    Open Access•Hans Orru, Christofer Åström et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2019

  • Human contribution to the record-breaking June and July 2019 heatwaves in Western Europe

    Open Access•Robert Vautard, Marcel Van Aalst et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2020

  • Temporal trends in human vulnerability to excessive heat

    Open Access•Scott C Sheridan, Michael J Allen•Environmental Research Letters•2018

  • Temporal trends of the association between ambient temperature and cardiovascular mortality

    Open Access•Peng Lü, Qi Zhao et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2020

  • Evaluating Mortality Response Associated with Two Different Nordic Heat Warning Systems in Riga, Latvia

    Open Access•Kerstin Pfeifer, Daniel Oudin Åström et al.•International Journal of…•2020

  • Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic—A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves

    Open Access•Aleš Urban, Hana Hanzlíková et al.•International Journal of…•2017

  • Extreme Temperature and Mortality by Educational Attainment in Spain, 2012–2018

    Open Access•Risto Conte Keivabu•European Journal of Population /…•2022

  • Temperature, temperature extremes, and mortality

    Mercedes Medina-Ramón, Joel Schwartz•Occupational and Environmental…•2007

  • High ambient temperature and mortality

    Open Access•Rupa Basu•Environmental Health•2009

  • Distributed lag non‐linear models

    Open Access•Antonio Gasparrini, Ben Armstrong et al.•Statistics in Medicine•2010

  • The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities

    Open Access•Daniela D’Ippoliti, Daniela D'Ippoliti et al.•Environmental Health•2010

  • Modifiers of the Temperature and Mortality Association in Seven US Cities

    Marie S O’neill, M S O'Neill•American Journal of Epidemiology•2003

  • Has the impact of heat waves on mortality changed in France since the European heat wave of summer 2003? A study of the 2006 heat wave

    Anne Fouillet, Grégoire Rey et al.•International Journal of…•2008

  • Attributable risk from distributed lag models

    Open Access•Antonio Gasparrini, Michela Leone•BMC Medical Research Methodology•2014

  • Temporal Variation in Heat–Mortality Associations

    Open Access•Antonio Gasparrini, Yuming Guo et al.•Environmental Health Perspectives•2015

  • Heat Effects on Mortality in 15 European Cities

    Michela Baccini, Annibale Biggeri et al.•Epidemiology•2008

  • Weather-Related Mortality

    Brooke Anderson, Brooke G Anderson et al.•Epidemiology•2009

  • Climate Change 2014 Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

    Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel…•Climate Change 2014 - Impacts,…•2014

  • Heat-related mortality

    Open Access•Shakoor Hajat, Tom Kosatky•Journal of Epidemiology and…•2010

  • Short term effects of air pollution on health

    Klea Katsouyanni, Joel Schwartz et al.•Journal of Epidemiology and…•1996

Unique citing works28
Citations per year2,8
Citation span2016 - 2026 (11)
Citation velocitycurrent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 27

Tools

Open DOISci-HubOpen Access
Ethnos_APP • Open Source Project • MIT License • Frontend v2.0.0 • Privacy and Cookies • API Documentation: api.ethnos.app/docs • API Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17049435 • Frontend Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17050053 • cruz.rio.br • Expectantes Misericordiae