Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15544903 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Vadim Vinichenko (0000-0001-7135-2618, Chalmers University of Technology), Marta Vetier (0000-0003-2349-6857, Central European University), Jessica Jewell (0000-0003-2846-9081, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis), Lola Nacke (0000-0003-0191-6902, Chalmers University of Technology), Aleh Cherp (0000-0002-9299-9792, Lund University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 18 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 014031-014031 |
| Publication date | 2022-12-22 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/acadf6 |
| OpenAlex | W4312092863 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 9 |
| References cited | 36 |
Ending the use of unabated coal power is a key climate change mitigation measure. However, we do not know how fast it is feasible to phase-out coal on the global scale. Historical experience of individual countries indicates feasible coal phase-out rates, but can these be upscaled to the global level and accelerated by deliberate action? To answer this question, we analyse 72 national coal power phase-out pledges and show that these pledges have diffused to more challenging socio-economic contexts and now cover 17% of the global coal power fleet, but their impact on emissions (up to 4.8 Gt CO 2 avoided by 2050) remains small compared to what is needed for achieving Paris climate targets. We also show that the ambition of pledges is similar across countries and broadly in line with historical precedents of coal power decline. While some pledges strengthen over time, up to 10% have been weakened by the energy crisis caused by the Russo-Ukrainian war. We construct scenarios of coal power decline based on empirically-grounded assumptions about future diffusion and ambition of coal phase-out policies. We show that under these assumptions unabated coal power generation in 2022–2050 would be between the median generation in 2 °C-consistent IPCC AR6 pathways and the third quartile in 2.5 °C-consistent pathways. More ambitious coal phase-out scenarios require much stronger effort in Asia than in OECD countries, which raises fairness and equity concerns. The majority of the 1.5 °C- and 2 °C-consistent IPCC pathways envision even more unequal distribution of effort and faster coal power decline in India and China than has ever been historically observed in individual countries or pledged by climate leaders
Business · Climate change · Coal · Economics · Energy security · Environmental economics · Equity (law · Natural resource economics · Phase (matter · Political science · Power (physics · Renewable energy · Waste management · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Engineering · Environmental Science · Global Energy and Sustainability Research · Law
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The feasibility of climate action
Historical diffusion of nuclear, wind and solar power in different national contexts
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Past and prospective energy transitions
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Just transition on the ground
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The future of coal in a carbon-constrained climate
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Apples, oranges, and consistent comparisons of the temporal dynamics of energy transitions
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| Unique citing works | 9 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 3 |
| Citation span | 2023 - 2026 (4) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 9 |