The Evolution of Rotation Group Bias
Will the Real Unemployment Rate Please Stand Up
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 19320108 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Alan B Krueger (Princeton University), Alexandre Mas (0000-0001-7077-0770, Princeton University), Xiaotong Niu (0000-0002-6238-683X, Congressional Budget Office) |
| Year | 2017 |
| Volume | 99 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 258-264 |
| Publication date | 2017-05-01 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Review of Economics and Statistics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0034-6535 • E-ISSN: 1530-9142 |
| Publisher | MIT Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1162/rest_a_00630 |
| OpenAlex | W1496703572 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 7 |
| References cited | 5 |
We document that rotation group bias—the tendency for the unemployment rate to vary systematically by month in sample—in the Current Population Survey (CPS) has worsened over time. Estimated unemployment rates for earlier rotation groups have grown sharply relative to later rotation groups; both should be nationally representative samples. This bias increased discretely after the 1994 CPS redesign, and rising nonresponse rates are likely a significant contributor. Survey nonresponse increased after the redesign, mirroring the evolution of rotation group bias. Consistent with this explanation, rotation group bias for households that responded in all eight interviews remained stable over time
Current Population Survey · Demographic economics · Econometrics · Economic growth · Economics · Mirroring · Physics · Population · Rotation (mathematics) · Rotation group SO · Sample (material) · Sociology · Statistics · Unemployment · Unemployment rate · Advanced Causal Inference Techniques · Demography · Mathematics · Psychology · Social Psychology · Survey Methodology and Nonresponse · Urban, Neighborhood, and Segregation Studies
How does the dramatic rise of nonresponse in the Current Population Survey impact labor market indicators
Cohort Size and Youth Earnings
Trouble in the Tails? What We Know about Earnings Nonresponse 30 Years after Lillard, Smith, and Welch
The Covid-19 pandemic and unemployment
Research Note
Measuring the Total Number of US Job Seekers
Panel Conditioning Biases in the Current Population Survey’s Food Security Supplement
| Citations per year | 0.88 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2018 - 2024 (7) |
| Highly cited | No |