Skip to main content

ETHNOS_APP

Home • Search • Journals • List 0

Experiences matter

A longitudinal study of individual-level sources of declining social trust in the United States

Bibliographic Data

ID2092525
AuthorsJan Mewes (0000-0003-4974-2956, Lund University, corresponding author), Malcolm Fairbrother (0000-0002-1400-2141, University of Graz), Giuseppe Nicola Giordano (0000-0002-6719-6680, Lund University), C Wu (0000-0003-2652-5684, York University), R Wilkes (0000-0003-2078-3308, University of British Columbia)
Year2021
Volume95
Pages102537
Publication date2021-03-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueSocial Science Research (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0049-089X • E-ISSN: 1096-0317
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.ssresearch.2021.102537
PMID33653587
OpenAlexW3127844637
LanguageEN
Citations received39
References cited79

The US has experienced a substantial decline in social trust in recent decades. Surprisingly few studies analyze whether individual-level explanations can account for this decrease. We use three-wave panel data from the General Social Survey (2006-2014) to study the effects of four possible individual-level sources of changes in social trust: job loss, social ties, income, and confidence in political institutions. Findings from fixed-effects linear regression models suggest that all but social ties matter. We then use 1973-2018 GSS data to predict trust based on observed values for unemployment, confidence in institutions, and satisfaction with income, versus an alternative counterfactual scenario in which the values of those three predictors are held constant at their mean levels in the early 1970s. Predicted values from these two scenarios differ substantially, suggesting that decreasing confidence in institutions and increasing unemployment scarring may explain about half of the observed decline in US social trust

Confidence interval · Counterfactual thinking · Demographic economics · Econometrics · Economic growth · Economics · European Social Survey · Fixed effects model · General Social Survey · Interpersonal ties · Longitudinal data · Panel data · Political science · Politics · Social capital · Social trust · Sociology · Statistics · Survey data collection · Tracking (education) · Unemployment · World Values Survey · Demography · Health disparities and outcomes · Medicine · Psychological Well-being and Life Satisfaction · Psychology · Social Capital and Networks · Social Psychology

  • Falling Behind, Losing Trust

    Open Access•Georg Kanitsar•Research in Social Stratification…•2026

  • Constancy of Self-Attitudes from Adolescence to Midlife

    M K Johnson, Michael Vuolo et al.•American Journal of Sociology•2026

  • Family Functioning and Community Resilience During the Covid-19 Lockdown Period in Turkey

    Emine Özmete, Melike Pak•Social Work in Public Health•2023

  • Building bridges of trust

    Open Access•Jiajun Lan, Yihan Liu et al.•Journal of Regional Science•2024

  • Are “bad” jobs bad for democracy? Precarious work and electoral participation in Europe

    Open Access•Leo Azzollini, R Macmillan•Frontiers in Political Science•2023

  • Income and Social Trust in Latin America

    Open Access•Juan Pablo González•Journal of Politics in Latin…•2022

  • Why is trust lower in Quebec? A cultural explanation

    Open Access•C Wu, A Dawson•Canadian Review of Sociology/Revue…•2022

  • What is social trust

    Open Access•Norman Kirby•Critical Review of International…•2025

  • Local government capacity as climate remedy

    Charlotte Glennie, Craig Segall•Local Environment•2026

  • Political Network Diversity and Trust in Online Political Content

    Open Access•Paul Platzman•Political Research Quarterly•2025

  • Welfare-state selectivity, universality, and social trust in Europe, 2002–2019

    Open Access•Jan Mewes•Journal of European Social Policy•2023

  • National Experiences and Trust in China’s National Government Among Hong Kong Chinese Youth

    Open Access•C K Cheung, Xiaodong Yue•Social Indicators Research•2023

  • At Which Level Does Unemployment Affect Political Trust? A Multilevel Analysis Across Europe

    Open Access•Leo Azzollini, Ebru Sanliturk et al.•Social Indicators Research•2025

  • Linking individual and collective social capital

    Shawna Bendeck, O P Hastings•Sociological Spectrum•2023

  • Social trust during the pandemic

    Open Access•Alexander Saaranen•Journal of Trust Research•2024

  • Policy stringency and social trust in China

    Shichao Du, Yi Zhou•Journal of Asian Public Policy•2026

  • Long panel studies of small-scale rural societies in the Global South

    Open Access•Jonathan Bauchet, Ricardo Godoy et al.•World Development•2026

  • Heterogeneous Effects of Military Service and Confidence in the Military on Social Trust in the United States

    Open Access•Chigon Kim•Armed Forces & Society•2026

  • Measuring particularized trust

    Open Access•B G Robbins•Social Networks•2023

  • Automation and Political Realignment

    Open Access•Gregorio Buzzelli, Francesco Nicoli et al.•Political Studies•2025

  • Childhood poverty and political participation

    Open Access•Clara Weißenfels•Electoral Studies•2026

  • The Effect of Cultural Trust on Cooperation in Two Behavioral Experiments

    Open Access•Joshua Doyle•Social Psychology Quarterly•2021

  • Fragile Trust, Stable Mistrust

    Open Access•Joshua Doyle•Social Psychology Quarterly•2024

  • An Empirical Comparison of Four Generalized Trust Scales

    Open Access•B G Robbins•Sociological Methods & Research•2024

  • Scar effects of unemployment on generalised social trust

    Open Access•Leo Azzollini•Social Science Research•2023

  • The Stickiness of Meritocratic Beliefs From Adolescence to Adulthood in Singapore

    Open Access•Yen Kiat Chong, Sooi-Beng Tan et al.•Youth & Society•2025

  • Rhetoric Versus Reality? A Comparative Study of Public and Non‐Public Sector Employees' Perceptions of Discrimination

    Open Access•Lihi Lahat, Chen Sharony et al.•Public Administration Review•2025

  • Humanistic Optimal Functioning Predicts Low Youth Violence

    Open Access•Roger G Tweed, Gira Bhatt et al.•Journal of Humanistic Psychology•2022

  • Social Trust in China

    C Wu, Zhiwen Gong et al.•Asian Survey•2024

  • All cops are trusted? How context and time shape immigrants’ trust in the police in Europe

    C S Czymara, J Mitchell•Ethnic and Racial Studies•2023

  • Intergenerational Transmission of Trust

    Open Access•C Wu•Socius Sociological Research for…•2022

  • The State and Trust

    Open Access•Francisco Herreros•Annual Review of Political Science•2023

  • Doubly disadvantaged

    Open Access•Leo Azzollini•British Journal of Sociology•2023

  • Unpacking Young Adults' Voting Preferences

    Open Access•Aaron A B Thompson, Nathan D Martins et al.•American Behavioral Scientist•2024

  • Change in Personal Culture over the Life Course

    Open Access•P M Lersch•American Sociological Review•2023

  • Valid and Reliable Measures of Generalized Trust

    Open Access•B G Robbins•Socius Sociological Research for…•2023

  • Can Bureaucrats Break Trust? Testing Cultural and Institutional Theories of Trust with Chinese Panel Data

    Open Access•Malcolm Fairbrother, Jan Mewes et al.•Socius Sociological Research for…•2022

  • When does criminal victimization undermine generalized trust? A weighted panel analysis of the effects of crime type, frequency, and variety

    Open Access•Florian Kaiser, Dietrich Oberwittler et al.•Social Science Research•2024

  • Social trust, cultural trust, and the will to sacrifice for environmental protections

    Open Access•Joshua Doyle•Social Science Research•2023

  • Fixed Effects Regression Models

    P D Allison, Paul Allison•Fixed Effects Regression Models•2009

  • Declines in Trust in Others and Confidence in Institutions Among American Adults and Late Adolescents, 1972–2012

    Open Access•J M Twenge, W Keith Campbell et al.•Psychological Science•2014

  • Unemployment Alters the Set Point for Life Satisfaction

    Open Access•Richard E Lucas, Andrew E Clark et al.•Psychological Science•2004

  • Social Foundations of Postindustrial Economies

    G Esping-Andersen•Social foundations of postindustria…•1999

  • Growing to Trust

    Open Access•Michael J Poulin, Claudia M Haase•Social Psychological and…•2015

  • Who feels it? Income inequality, relative deprivation, and financial satisfaction in U.S. states, 1973-2012

    Open Access•O P Hastings•Research in Social Stratification…•2019

  • Bowling Alone

    Elizabeth Morrow, Lindsay Scorgie-Porter•Bowling Alone•2017

  • Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Social Capital

    Patrick Sturgis, Roger Patulny et al.•Handbook of Research Methods and…•2015

  • Handbook of Research Methods on Trust

    Fergus Lyons, Mark Saunders et al.•Handbook of Research Methods on…•2011

  • Age, Period and Cohort Effects On Social Capital

    P Schwadel, M Stout et al.•Social Forces•2012

  • Do Social Connections Create Trust? An Examination Using New Longitudinal Data

    J L Glanville, M A Andersson et al.•Social Forces•2013

  • Losing a Job

    C Young, C M Young•Social Forces•2012

  • Contextual generalized trust and immunization against the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic in the American states

    Open Access•Björn Rönnerstrand•SSM - Population Health•2016

  • Social and Unsocial Capital

    Open Access•Margaret Levi•Politics & Society•1996

  • Reliability of the Core Items in the General Social Survey

    Open Access•M Hout, O P Hastings•Sociological Science•2016

  • Trust and Public Support for Environmental Protection in Diverse National Contexts

    Open Access•Malcolm Fairbrother•Sociological Science•2016

  • The Moral Foundations of Trust

    Open Access•Eric M Uslaner•SSRN Electronic Journal•2002

  • Who trusts

    Open Access•Jan Delhey, Kenneth Newton•European Societies•2003

  • How do We Learn to Trust? A Confirmatory Tetrad Analysis of the Sources of Generalized Trust

    Open Access•J L Glanville, P Paxton•Social Psychology Quarterly•2007

  • Is Trust Rigid or Malleable? A Laboratory Experiment

    Open Access•P Paxton, J L Glanville•Social Psychology Quarterly•2015

  • The Effects of Racial Segregation on Trust and Volunteering in US Cities

    Open Access•Jonathan T Rothwell, Jonathan Rothwell•Urban Studies•2012

  • Finding critical trusters

    Open Access•C Wu, R Wilkes•International Journal of…•2018

  • Employment Stability in the U.S. Labor Market

    Matissa Hollister•Annual Review of Sociology•2011

  • Work Centrality in Germany, Israel, Japan, and the United States

    Open Access•Itzhak Harpaz, Xuanning Fu et al.•Cross-Cultural Research•1997

  • The three worlds of welfare capitalism

    Gøsta Esping-Andersen•The three worlds of welfare…•1990

  • E Pluribus Unum

    Open Access•Robert D Putnam•Scandinavian Political Studies•2007

  • Where You Stand Depends Upon Where Your Grandparents Sat

    Eric M Uslaner•Public Opinion Quarterly•2008

  • Changes in Income Predict Change in Social Trust

    Open Access•Mark J Brandt, Geoffrey Wetherell et al.•Political Psychology•2015

  • Education and Social Trust

    Open Access•Sven Oskarsson, P T Dinesen et al.•Political Psychology•2017

  • Generalized Trust Through Civic Engagement? Evidence from Five National Panel Studies

    Open Access•Erik Van Ingen, René Bekkers•Political Psychology•2015

  • Trusting the State, Trusting Each Other? The Effect of Institutional Trust on Social Trust

    Open Access•Kim Mannemar Sønderskov, P T Dinesen•Political Behavior•2016

  • A Genetic Basis for Social Trust

    Open Access•Patrick Sturgis, Sue Read et al.•Political Behavior•2010

  • Representation in an Era of Political and Economic Inequality

    Open Access•Jan E Leighley, Jan Leighley et al.•Perspectives on Politics•2018

  • Spheres of trust

    Open Access•Michel Freitag, Markus Freitag et al.•European Journal of Political…•2009

  • Questioning the New Liberal Dilemma

    Staffan Kumlin, Bo Rothstein•Comparative Politics•2010

  • Welfare States and Social Trust

    Open Access•Cheol-Sung Lee•Comparative Political Studies•2013

  • Making and Breaking Social Capital

    Open Access•Staffan Kumlin, Bo Rothstein•Comparative Political Studies•2005

  • What Have We Learned About Generalized Trust, If Anything

    Peter Nannestad•Annual Review of Political Science•2008

  • Individual-Level Evidence for the Causes and Consequences of Social Capital

    John Brehm, Wendy M Rahn et al.•American Journal of Political…•1997

  • Social Capital in Britain

    Open Access•Peter A Hall•British Journal of Political…•1999

  • Rethinking the Decline in Social Capital

    Open Access•April K Clark•American Politics Research•2015

  • The State and Social Capital

    Bo Rothstein, Dietlind Stolle•Comparative Politics•2008

  • How Welfare Regimes Generate and Erode Social Capital

    Christian Albrekt Larsen•Comparative Politics•2007

  • Tuning In, Tuning Out

    Open Access•Robert D Putnam•PS Political Science & Politics•1995

  • Inequality, Trust, and Civic Engagement

    Open Access•Eric M Uslaner, Mitchell Brown•American Politics Research•2005

  • Bowling Alone

    Open Access•Robert D Putnam•Journal of democracy•1995

  • Social Trust and Value Change

    Open Access•Wendy M Rahn, John E Transue•Political Psychology•1998

  • Environmental group membership, collective action and generalised trust

    Kim Mannemar Sønderskov•Environmental Politics•2008

  • Self-rated health, generalized trust, and the Affordable Care Act

    Open Access•Jan Mewes, Giuseppe Nicola Giordano•Social Science & Medicine•2017

  • Trust, happiness and mortality

    Open Access•Alexander Miething, Jan Mewes et al.•Social Science & Medicine•2020

  • Social capital and self-rated health - A study of temporal (causal) relationships

    Open Access•Giuseppe Nicola Giordano, Jonas Björk et al.•Social Science & Medicine•2012

  • Ethnic Diversity and Social Trust

    Open Access•P T Dinesen, Kim Mannemar Sønderskov•American Sociological Review•2015

  • Measuring Stability and Change in Personal Culture Using Panel Data

    Open Access•Kevin Kiley, Vaisey•American Sociological Review•2020

  • Inequality and the erosion of trust among the poor

    Aina Gallego•Socio-Economic Review•2016

  • Unemployment, Trust in Government, and Satisfaction with Democracy

    Open Access•Paul C Bauer•Socius Sociological Research for…•2018

  • Models for Three-Wave Panel Data

    Open Access•M Hout•Sociological Methods & Research•2017

  • What You Can-and Can't-Do With Three-Wave Panel Data

    Open Access•Vaisey, Stephen Vaisey et al.•Sociological Methods & Research•2017

  • How Persistent Is Generalised Trust

    Open Access•C Dawson•Sociology•2019

  • Labour Market Insecurity and Generalized Trust in Welfare State Context

    Christoph Nguyen•European Sociological Review•2017

  • Negative Experiences and Trust

    Paul C Bauer•European Sociological Review•2015

  • Danish Exceptionalism

    Kim Mannemar Sønderskov, K M Sonderskov et al.•European Sociological Review•2014

  • Love Thy Neighbor? Ethnoracial Diversity and Trust Reexamined

    M Abascal, Delia Baldassarri•American Journal of Sociology•2015

  • Is Social Capital Declining in the United States? A Multiple Indicator Assessment

    P Paxton•American Journal of Sociology•1999

  • Does Migration Affect Trust? Internal Migration and the Stability of Trust among Americans

    C Wu•Sociological Quarterly•2020

  • How does gun violence affect Americans' trust in each other

    Open Access•C Wu•Social Science Research•2020

  • Partisan strength, political trust and generalized trust in the United States

    Open Access•Marc Hooghe, Jacob Oser et al.•Social Science Research•2017

  • (Dis)placing trust

    Open Access•James Laurence•Social Science Research•2015

  • Does inequality erode social trust? Results from multilevel models of US states and counties

    Open Access•Malcolm Fairbrother, Isaac William Martins et al.•Social Science Research•2013

  • Interpersonal trust

    Open Access•April K Clark, Marie A Eisenstein•Social Science Research•2013

  • Re-thinking the decline in trust

    Open Access•R Wilkes•Social Science Research•2011

  • Yet Another Case of Nordic Exceptionalism? Extending Existing Evidence for a Causal Relationship Between Institutional and Social Trust to the Netherlands and Switzerland

    Open Access•Nico Seifert•Social Indicators Research•2018

  • Is Trust in Others Declining in America? An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

    Open Access•Robert V Robinson, Elton F Jackson•Social Science Research•2001

  • Market, Family, and State Sources of Income Instability in Germany and the United States

    Open Access•P A Mcmanus, T Diprete et al.•Social Science Research•2000

  • Factors Relating to Misanthropy in Contemporary American Society

    Open Access•Tom W Smith, Tom Smith•Social Science Research•1997

Unique citing works39
Citations per year7,8
Citation span2021 - 2026 (6)
Citation velocitycurrent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 37

Tools

Open DOIOpen Access
Ethnos_APP • Open Source Project • MIT License • Frontend v2.0.0 • Privacy and Cookies • API Documentation: api.ethnos.app/docs • API Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17049435 • Frontend Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17050053 • cruz.rio.br • Expectantes Misericordiae