Regularization of Synthetic Controls for Policy Evaluation
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21653392 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Yuehua Chen (0000-0003-2799-3703, National Taiwan University, corresponding author), Yi‐Ting Chen (0000-0002-0063-4965, Department of Finance National Taiwan University Taipei Taiwan) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Publication date | 2026-05-27 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Applied Econometrics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1099-1255 • E-ISSN: 0883-7252 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1002/jae.70071 |
| OpenAlex | W7162661001 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 22 |
We propose a unified framework for interpreting and comparing a broad class of synthetic control (SC) methods. Our framework is built on an analysis of a mean‐squared prediction error (MSPE) bound for the counterfactual predicted by a generic SC method, without imposing a specific outcome model. Using this framework, we develop a generalized SC method that provides a more comprehensive regularization of the MSPE bound than several existing SC methods. Through simulation studies and placebo analyses, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting the counterfactual
Counterfactual thinking · Synthetic data · Upper and lower bounds · Advanced Causal Inference Techniques · Advanced Control Systems Optimization · Reinforcement Learning in Robotics
Causal Inference for Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences
Synthetic Difference-in-Differences
Using Synthetic Controls
The Augmented Synthetic Control Method
Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies
Estimating causal effects of treatments in randomized and nonrandomized studies.
Statistics and Causal Inference
A Design-Based Perspective on Synthetic Control Methods
Synthetic Control Estimation Beyond Comparative Case Studies
Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method
Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation
The Economic Costs of Conflict
The State of Applied Econometrics
| Highly cited | No |
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