The Prior Probability of Jesus Mythicism Re-Evaluated in Light of the Gospels’ Dramatic Date
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 22037663 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Kamil Gregor (0009-0007-0744-9432, Charles University), Brian S Blais (0000-0003-1037-480X, Bryant University), Chrissy Hansen (0000-0002-3320-1365, University of Nebraska at Kearney), Chrissy M Hansen (University of Nebraska at Kearney, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 15 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 1-22 |
| Publication date | 2025-01-02 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Early Christian History (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2222-582X • E-ISSN: 2471-4054 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/2222582x.2024.2366767 |
| OpenAlex | W4408135525 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 11 |
This article re-examines the prior probability of Jesus mythicism recently put forward by Richard Carrier. Carrier argues that this probability is relatively high because Jesus is among the so-called “Rank-Raglan heroes” from Mediterranean antiquity who are all fictional. If Jesus was the only historical example, he would be exceptional, which is inherently improbable. We make use of a recent survey of primary sources which has identified a large number of additional historical ancient Mediterranean Rank-Raglan heroes and draw attention to a peculiar feature of these figures which appears, at face value, highly relevant to the question of their historicity. This is the dramatic date, or the date when the person in question is depicted as living. We show that all ancient Mediterranean Rank-Raglan heroes depicted as living in the very distant past are fictional while almost all living in a relatively recent past, much closer to the dramatic date of Jesus, are historical. We anticipate several potential objections to this finding, fully reproduce Carrier’s formal Bayesian analysis, and show that when the dramatic date of these newly identified heroes is taken into account, the prior probability of Jesus mythicism becomes very small
Biblical Studies and Interpretation · Historical and Linguistic Studies · Historical, Religious, and Philosophical Studies · History
| Highly cited | No |
|---|