Comment on ‘expectancy of life at birth in 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union

In D. Peter Mazur's recent article, 'Expectancy of Life at Birth in 36 Nationalities of the Soviet Union: 1958-1960', crude rates of death and expectancies of life for nationalities are derived from a scant base of data that includes crude rates of natural increase for administrative units and various ratios of composition of the populations of both administrative units and nationalities. Students of Soviet demography genuinely appreciate Mazur's attempt to derive rich results from meagre data. Of course, to do this strong assumptions are required and Mazur warns that 'the quantitative results ... are valid only to the extent that the underlying methodology is theoretically sound'. One way to test the quantitative results is to examine how well the crude death rates for the nationalities calculated by Mazur reproduce the crude death rates for administrative units with which Mazur started. Mazur feels that the estimated death rates for nationalities closely agree with the death rates for administrative areas. The present author is sceptical. Application of the method described below does not show close correspondence, and this matter, which is crucial in the evaluation of Mazur's results, seems problematical.

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