The future of food from the sea

Bibliographic Data

ID23319720
AuthorsChristopher Costello (0000-0002-9646-7806, University of California, Santa Barbara, corresponding author), Ling Cao (0000-0002-8284-3460, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, corresponding author), Stefan Gelcich (0000-0002-5976-9311, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, corresponding author), Miguel A Cisneros-Mata (0000-0001-5525-5498, Instituto Nacional de Pesca y Acuacultura), Christopher M Free (0000-0002-2557-8920, University of California, Santa Barbara), Halley E Froehlich (0000-0001-7322-1523, University of California, Santa Barbara), Christopher D Golden (0000-0002-2258-7493, Harvard University), Gakushi Ishimura (0000-0001-8946-7253, Iwate University), Jason Maier (0000-0002-3425-3503, University of California, Santa Barbara), Ilan MacAdam-Somer (University of California, Santa Barbara), Tracey Mangin (0000-0001-6111-0914, University of California, Santa Barbara), Michael C Melnychuk (0000-0002-6088-7657, University of Washington), Masanori Miyahara (0000-0002-8826-7855, Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency), Carryn L De Moor (0000-0001-5948-0123, University of Cape Town), Rosamond L Naylor (0000-0002-1260-3322, Stanford University), Rosamond Naylor, Linda Nøstbakken (Norwegian School of Economics), Elena Ojea (0000-0003-4991-8077, Universidade de Vigo), Erin O’Reilly (0000-0001-9734-7972, University of California, Santa Barbara), Ana M Parma (0000-0003-0461-2904), Andrew J Plantinga (0000-0003-3920-0424, University of California, Santa Barbara), Shakuntala H Thilsted (0000-0002-4041-1651, WorldFish), Jane Lubchenco (0000-0003-3540-5879, Oregon State University)
Year2020
Volume588
Issue7836
Pages95-100
Publication date2020-12-03
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueNature (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0028-0836 • E-ISSN: 1476-4687
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1038/s41586-020-2616-y
PMID32814903
OpenAlexW3072837421
LanguageEN
Citations received71
References cited39

Global food demand is rising, and serious questions remain about whether supply can increase sustainably1. Land-based expansion is possible but may exacerbate climate change and biodiversity loss, and compromise the delivery of other ecosystem services2–6. As food from the sea represents only 17% of the current production of edible meat, we ask how much food we can expect the ocean to sustainably produce by 2050. Here we examine the main food-producing sectors in the ocean—wild fisheries, finfish mariculture and bivalve mariculture—to estimate ‘sustainable supply curves’ that account for ecological, economic, regulatory and technological constraints. We overlay these supply curves with demand scenarios to estimate future seafood production. We find that under our estimated demand shifts and supply scenarios (which account for policy reform and technology improvements), edible food from the sea could increase by 21–44 million tonnes by 2050, a 36–74% increase compared to current yields. This represents 12–25% of the estimated increase in all meat needed to feed 9.8 billion people by 2050. Increases in all three sectors are likely, but are most pronounced for mariculture. Whether these production potentials are realized sustainably will depend on factors such as policy reforms, technological innovation and the extent of future shifts in demand. Modelled supply curves show that, with policy reform and technological innovation, the production of food from the sea may increase sustainably, perhaps supplying 25% of the increase in demand for meat products by 2050.

Agricultural economics · Aquaculture · Biology · Business · Climate change · Economics · Fish <Actinopterygii> · Fishery · Food processing · Mariculture · Natural resource economics · Production (economics) · Supply and demand · Sustainability · Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact · Ecology · Environmental Science · Food Industry and Aquatic Biology · Marine Bivalve and Aquaculture Studies

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