Urbanization, the Youth, and Protest
A Cross-National Analysis
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 24315143 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Patrick S Sawyer (0000-0003-3291-1450, HSE University, Moscow, Russia), Daniil M Romanov (HSE University, Moscow, Russia), Maxim Slav (0000-0002-3061-1692, HSE University, Moscow, Russia), Andrey V Korotayev (HSE University, Moscow, Russia) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 56 |
| Issue | 2-3 |
| Pages | 125-149 |
| Publication date | 2022-04-01 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Cross-Cultural Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1069-3971 • E-ISSN: 1552-3578 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/10693971211059762 |
| OpenAlex | W4200403645 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 26 |
| References cited | 57 |
Demographic changes associated with the transformation from traditional to advanced economies are the basis for many of today’s theories of violent and non-violent protest formation. Both levels of urbanization and the size of the “youth bulge” have shown to be reliable measures for predicting protest events in a country. As these two processes result from modernization, it seems logical to hypothesize that the combined effect of the rise in urbanization and the increase in the youth population, urban youth bulge, would be a more relevant predictor for protests. Our tests on cross-national time-series data from 1950 to 2010 for 98 countries reveal that the combined effect of the two forces is an important predictor of anti-government protests. It may seem that the role of the urban youth bulge would appear to be an issue of the past as in more recent decades the proportion of the urban youth tends to decline in most countries of the world. However, this factor tends to be very relevant for many developing countries where both youth bulges have been growing for several decades and the general urban population is on the rise.
anti-government protests · Demographic change · Developing Countries · modernization · Protest · Urban youth · Urbanization · youth bulge · Political and Social Issues · Political Conflict and Governance · Youth, Politics, and Society
Education and Revolutions
Towards the Ranking of the Importance of Revolutionary Destabilization Factors in Asian and African Countries Using Machine Learning Methods
Revolution and Democracy in the Twenty-First Century
High-Income and Low-Income Countries. Toward a Common Goal at Different Speeds
Africa
Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics
Introduction
Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Industrial Society
Demographic Transformations in the Historical Process
Global Aging and Other Demographic Trends Within Cybernetic Production Principle
Biological and Social Phases of Big History and Complexity Growth
When numbers remain silent
Africa—The Continent of the Future. Demographic and Economic Challenges and Opportunities
Gender-based dynamics in Russian online political discourse
A Quantitative Analysis of Economic Factors of Revolutionary Destabilization
Political togetherness
Shades of party activism
Education and Revolutionary Destabilization Risks
Revolutions and Democracy
Elections, Type of Regime and Risks of Revolutionary Destabilization
Demographic Factors as Predictors of Revolutionary Situations
Organizing and youth resistance
Students and protests
Anti-democratic youth? The influence of youth cohort size and quality of democracy on young people’s support for democracy
Machine Learning for Ranking Factors of Global and Regional Protest Destabilization with a Special Focus on Afrasian Instability Macrozone
The Peace Penalty of Backsliding
GDP Per Capita and Protest Activity
A Big History of Globalization
Poor People's Movements
Free Markets & Food Riots
Negative Binomial Regression
Leadership in Social Movements
The clash of civilizations and the remaking of world order
Repertoires and cycles of collective action
Power and Popular Protest
Contention in Demographic and Life-Course Context
Contemporary Democracies
The Making of Social Movements in Latin America
Protests by the young and digitally restless
Population Pressure, Horizontal Inequality and Political Violence
The Social Media Basis of Youth Protest Behavior
Cultures in ConflictSocial Movements and the State in Peru
Urban Social Movements in the Third World
Islamism, Arab Spring, and the Future of Democracy
Greed and grievance in civil war
Power in Movement
The Youth Bulge in Egypt
The Social Dynamics of Brazil's Rural Landless Workers' Movement
A Wave of Global Sociopolitical Destabilization of the 2010s
The generalized action potential of protest movements
Youth bulge and civil war
Explaining Urban Social Disorder and Violence
Age structure and political violence
The Arab Spring
Loyalists and Revolutionaries
A Theory of Urban Growth
Rapid Growth as a Destabilizing Force
Global and National Sources of Political Protest
Commonwealth
Globalisation and the Future of Terrorism
Rebel cities
What Drives People to Protest in an Authoritarian Country? Resources and Rewards vs Risks of Protests in Urban and Rural China
The Diffusion of Nonviolent Campaigns
Youth Bulges and Civil Conflict
Population, Resources, and Political Violence
Political Institutions and Street Protests in Latin America
Rough days in democracies
Democracy and the demographic transition
It’s Not the Left
Contentious Engagement
Modernization
A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence
Effects of Education on Attitude to Protest
Some Social Requisites of Democracy
Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War
Migrant-based youth bulges and social conflict in urban sub-Saharan Africa
Theses on Urbanization
Socio-Economic Development and Protests
Youth as a Force in the Modern World
| Citations per year | 6.5 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2022 - 2026 (5) |
| Highly cited | No |