Revolution and Democracy in the Twenty-First Century

Bibliographic Data

ID24315325
AuthorsAndrey Korotayev (0000-0003-3014-2037, HSE University, Moscow, Russia), Andrew Zhdanov (0000-0002-4492-7903, HSE University, Moscow, Russia), Leonid Grinin (0000-0003-0278-2619, HSE University, Moscow, Russia), Vadim Ustyuzhanin (0000-0003-3800-1108, HSE University, Moscow, Russia)
Year2025
Volume59
Issue2
Pages180-215
Publication date2025-04-01
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueCross-Cultural Research (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1069-3971 • E-ISSN: 1552-3578
PublisherSAGE Publications (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1177/10693971241245862
OpenAlexW4394572489
LanguageEN
Citations received5
References cited110

In this article, we analyze an inverted U-shaped relationship between the type of regime (on the autocracy-democracy scale) and the risks of revolutionary destabilization. Anocracies tend to be more vulnerable to revolutionary destabilization than full autocracies or full (consolidated) democracies. We also point to a strong positive association between the weakening of autocracies and the risks of revolutionary destabilization that exist among full autocracies. In addition, full autocracies moving towards democracy and transitioning to partial autocratic rule are at increased risk of revolutionary destabilization, which explains why the current global spread of democracy is associated with an upswing rather than a downswing in revolutionary activity. Finally, strong forms of revolutionary destabilization are quite possible in cases of deconsolidation of consolidated democracy, which additionally suggests that the era of revolutions will not end in the foreseeable future. Thus, we propose a general theory on the effect of regime type on revolutionary destabilization and address inconsistencies among various studies regarding the impact of the regime on revolutionary instability. The conducted research also allows us to contribute to the answer to the question posed by many researchers of revolutions at the end of the last century – will the era of revolutions end with the global spread of democracy? Our analysis suggests that if this happens someday, it will not be in any foreseeable future.

anocracy · Democratization · political regimes · Revolution · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Political Conflict and Governance · Political Theory and Democracy