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Fresh carnations or all thorn, no rose? Nonviolent campaigns and transitions in autocracies

Bibliographic Data

ID4902802
AuthorsM Rivera (0000-0003-1554-2681, University of Essex), Mauricio Rivera Celestino (University of Essex), Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (0000-0003-4149-3211, Department of Government, University of Essex & Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), corresponding author)
Year2013
Volume50
Issue3
Pages385-400
Publication date2013-05-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Peace Research (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022343312469979
OpenAlexW2132054149
LanguageEN
Citations received115
References cited79

Whereas optimists see the so-called Arab Spring as similar to the revolutions of 1989, and likely to bring about democratic rule, skeptics fear that protest bringing down dictators may simply give way to new dictatorships, as in the Iranian revolution. Existing research on transitions has largely neglected the role of protest and direct action in destabilizing autocracies and promoting democracy. We argue that protest and direct action can promote transitions in autocracies, and that the mode of direct action, that is, whether violent or nonviolent, has a major impact on the prospects for autocratic survival and democracy. We present empirical results supporting our claim that nonviolent protests substantially increase the likelihood of transitions to democracy, especially under favorable international environments, while violent direct action is less effective in undermining autocracies overall, and makes transitions to new autocracies relatively more likely

Action (physics) · Autocracy · Democracy · Development economics · Dictatorship · Economics · Physics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Sociology · Corruption and Economic Development · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Religion and Society Interactions

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Unique citing works115
Citations per year8,85
Citation span2013 - 2026 (14)
Citation velocitycurrent
Highly citedYes
Citation typesNeutral: 107

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