Usaid Democracy Promotion as a Possible Predictor of Revolutionary Destabilization
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 2299348 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Maksim Kostin (0000-0002-1493-730X, National Research University Higher School of Economics), Andrey Korotayev (0000-0003-3014-2037, Institute for African Studies) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 23 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 240-278 |
| Publication date | 2024-05-03 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Comparative Sociology (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1569-1322 • E-ISSN: 1569-1330 |
| Publisher | Walter de Gruyter GmbH (PUBLISHER • DE) |
| DOI | 10.1163/15691330-bja10102 |
| OpenAlex | W4402806556 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 6 |
| References cited | 83 |
USAID democracy promotion programs might not only influence the democracy levels, but also increase the likelihood of revolutionary uprisings in the recipient states. Democracy promotion can strengthen political opponents of the incumbent regime via support for alternative media, civil society groups and political parties, on one hand, and, on the other, support democratic institutions that in contrast to autocracies are more tolerable towards political opponents and thus allow more room for expressing political will on the streets. Since democracy aid targets 'democrats' who are less prone to exert armed violence, the authors expect it to be associated with unarmed uprisings. Using logit regression models, they find that the volume of the USAID financial democracy assistance appears to be a significant predictor of unarmed revolutionary destabilization, but its effect is relatively weak. Some particular sub-sectors of democracy assistance have an impact on revolutionary destabilization, namely: civil society, elections, human rights and media assistance. These correlations might be partly explained by the fact that USAID assistance goes disproportionately to anocracies. This aid tends to increase the probability of revolutionary destabilization in two ways - directly (through strengthening political opponents of the regime) and indirectly (through increasing the number of anocracies in the world
Autocracy · Civil society · Democracy · Democracy promotion · Democratization · Development economics · Economics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Promotion (chess · Sociology · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · International Development and Aid · Law · Political Conflict and Governance
Introduction
Can artificial social movements shape cultural identity? Taking the No-Kings series of anti-Trump movements actions as an example
The global implications of U.S. withdrawal from WHO and the Usaid shutdown
Towards the Ranking of the Importance of Revolutionary Destabilization Factors in Asian and African Countries Using Machine Learning Methods
The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part II
Discussion Among the Fifth-Generation Circle. A rejoinder to Mark Beissinger, Daniel Ritter, Valentine Moghadam, Egor Fain, and Alisa Shishkina
Toward a Fourth Generation of Revolutionary Theory
Urbanization and Revolutions
Economic Origins of Revolutions
Education and Revolutions (Why Do Some Revolutions Take up Arms while Others Do Not?)
Social science history
Terrorism and Political Violence
Why civil resistance works
Anatomies of Revolution
Elections, Regime Type, and Risks of Revolutionary Destabilization. A Quantitative Analysis
Political Regime Types and Revolutionary Destabilization Risks in the Twenty-First Century
Education and Revolutionary Destabilization Risks
Demographic Factors as Predictors of Revolutionary Situations
Socio-economic Development and Anti-government Protests in Light of a New Quantitative Analysis of Global Databases
Backing Despots? Foreign Aid and the Survival of Autocratic Regimes
After the Revolution
Civil society, youth and societal mobilization in democratic revolutions
Towards a theory of external democracy promotion
Economic Growth, Education, and Terrorism
Aid Paradox
The dynamics of regime change
Why Civil Resistance Works
The World-Cultural Origins of Revolutionary Waves
Regime Cycles
Journal of Peace Research
Can democracy aid improve democracy? The European Union’s democracy assistance 2002–2018
GDP Per Capita and Protest Activity
Regime Type and Political Destabilization in Cross-National Perspective
Center-Periphery Dissonance as a Possible Factor of the Revolutionary Wave of 2013-2014
Civil Society and the Legacies of Dictatorship
A Double-Edge Sword? Mass Media and Nonviolent Dissent in Autocracies
Structure and Example in Modular Political Phenomena
Enough! Electoral Fraud, Collective Action Problems, and Post-Communist Colored Revolutions
Preelection Mobilization and Electoral Outcome in Authoritarian Regimes
Helping hand or heavy hand? Foreign aid, regime type and domestic unrest
New Threats to Freedom
External Influence and Democratization
From Politics to Protest
The Real Causes of the Color Revolutions
Elections Without Democracy
The Role of Ordinary People in Democratization
Transitions from Postcommunism
The Diffusion of Nonviolent Campaigns
Can Structural Conditions Explain the Onset of Nonviolent Uprisings
Aiding and Abetting
Manufacturing Dissent
The Effect of Civil Society Organizations and Democratization Aid on Civil War Onset
Political Institutions and Street Protests in Latin America
Constraining political corruption
Democracy promotion before and after the ‘colour revolutions
Nonviolent revolutions
Assisting democrats or resisting dictators? The nature and impact of democracy support by the United States National Endowment for Democracy, 1990–99
Pocketbook Protests
Electoral Protests and Democratization Beyond the Color Revolutions
Students in the Streets
A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability
Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict
Democracy by Demand? Reinvestigating the Effect of Self-expression Values on Political Regime Type
Conquering and coercing
Fresh carnations or all thorn, no rose? Nonviolent campaigns and transitions in autocracies
Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict
Regulating NGO funding
The democratic dividend of nonviolent resistance
Revisiting democratic civil peace
Some Social Requisites of Democracy
Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816-1992
Persistence and Change in Political Systems, 1800-1971
Foreign Funded NGOs in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine
Sticks, Stones, and Molotov Cocktails
Elections, Type of Regime and Risks of Revolutionary Destabilization
Revolutions and Democracy
Machine Learning for Ranking Factors of Global and Regional Protest Destabilization with a Special Focus on Afrasian Instability Macrozone
Terrorism and Democracy
Socio-Economic Development and Protests
Comparative Sociology
| Unique citing works | 6 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 3 |
| Citation span | 2024 - 2026 (3) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 5 |