Citizen Action and Elite Responses

Opposition Mass Movements and Regime Change From Within, 1900–2019

Bibliographic Data

ID10071729
AuthorsVilde Lunnan Djuve (0000-0003-3947-5161, University of Oslo, corresponding author), Carl Henrik Knutsen (0000-0002-5470-9045, University of Oslo)
Year2025
Volume69
Issue10
Pages1798-1826
Publication date2025-02-09
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
PublisherSAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1177/00220027251318938
OpenAlexW4407343774
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited52

The mobilization of opposition mass movements may spur regime change via different processes, including popular revolutions or coups. We zoom in on one salient channel through which mass mobilization may induce regime change, namely via provoking incumbent responses. Synthesizing different arguments, we detail how incumbent elites sometimes preemptively alter the regime to diffuse threats by incumbent-guided democratization or by using opposition mobilization as windows of opportunity to transform the regime into one they prefer over the status quo (e.g., via self-coups). We combine data on opposition campaigns with detailed data on modes of regime breakdown and find that, overall, sustained mass movements are clearly associated with subsequent incumbent-led transitions. When disaggregating, violent movements typically precede only non-liberalizing transitions. In contrast, nonviolent movements are associated with all incumbent-led transitions, including democratizing ones. Thus, nonviolence is a key component in many successful campaigns for democracy, also absent full-fledged revolutions

Democracy · Democratization · Elite · Mass mobilization · Mobilization · Opposition (politics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Regime change · Salient · Sociology · Status quo · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Politics and Society in Latin America

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Open DOIOpen Access