Mutiny and nonviolence in the Arab Spring

Exploring military defections and loyalty in Egypt, Bahrain, and Syria

Bibliographic Data

ID3917142
AuthorsE Nepstad (0000-0002-2564-5329, University of New Mexico, corresponding author), Sharon Erickson Nepstad (University of New Mexico)
Year2013
Volume50
Issue3
Pages337-349
Publication date2013-05-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Peace Research (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022343313476529
OpenAlexW2033227033
LanguageEN
Citations received128
References cited39

Recent studies of civil resistance indicate that security force defections can heavily influence the outcome of nonviolent uprisings against authoritarian regimes. Yet we know little about why, when, and how mutiny occurs. In this article, I ask: what factors influence the likelihood of military defections during a nonviolent conflict? In reviewing various literatures, I identify ten factors that facilitate or obstruct mutiny. I propose that two of these are particularly influential: (1) whether troops receive economic or political benefits from the regime; and (2) whether troops perceive the regime as fragile, based on the international community's response to the conflict. Specifically, I argue that troops who receive benefits from a regime are more likely to remain loyal while those who receive no such benefits are more likely to defect. However, even the most underprivileged troops are unlikely to defect if they believe that the state is strong enough to withstand a major civilian uprising. Soldiers' perception of regime strength is partly shaped by whether outside nations support the opposition, thereby weakening the state, or send troops to reinforce the regime's control. Using a qualitative comparative method, I illustrate these dynamics through an examination of several Arab Spring uprisings: Egypt, where the military sided with civil resisters; Bahrain, where troops remained loyal to the state; and Syria, where the military split. Then, to encourage more research on this topic, I use these three cases to generate additional hypotheses about defections that others can test against a wider set of cases. I conclude with a discussion of the questions that future researchers should explore and the types of methodological approaches that are needed in this field of study

Authoritarianism · Criminology · Democracy · Development economics · Economics · International law · Mutiny · Opposition (politics) · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Resistance (ecology) · Sociology · Spanish Civil War · State (computer science) · Use of force · Global Peace and Security Dynamics · Law · Middle East and Rwanda Conflicts · Political Conflict and Governance · Psychology

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