GDP Per Capita and Protest Activity

A Quantitative Reanalysis

Bibliographic Data

ID24315291
AuthorsAndrey Korotayev (0000-0003-3014-2037, National Research University Higher School of Economics), Stanislav Bilyuga (0000-0002-7015-860X, National Research University Higher School of Economics), Alisa Shishkina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
Year2018
Volume52
Issue4
Pages406-440
Publication date2018-10-01
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueCross-Cultural Research (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1069-3971 • E-ISSN: 1552-3578
PublisherSAGE Publications (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1177/1069397117732328
OpenAlexW2756920185
LanguageEN
Citations received26
References cited36

Our research suggests that the relation between GDP per capita and sociopolitical destabilization is not characterized by a straightforward negative correlation; it rather has an inverted U-shape. The highest risks are typical for the countries with intermediate values of GDP per capita, not the highest or lowest values. Thus, until a certain value of GDP per capita is reached, economic growth predicts an increase in the risks of sociopolitical destabilization. This positive correlation is particularly strong ( r = .94, R 2 = .88) and significant for the intensity of antigovernment demonstrations. This correlation can be observed in a very wide interval (up to 20,000 of international 2014 dollars at purchasing power parities [PPPs]). We suggest that it is partially accounted for by the following regularities: (a) GDP growth in authoritarian regimes strengthens the pro-democracy movements, and, consequently, intensifies antigovernment demonstrations; (b) in the GDP per capita interval from the minimum to $20,000, the growth of GDP per capita correlates quite strongly with a declining proportion of authoritarian regimes and a growing proportion of intermediate and democratic regimes; and, finally, (c) GDP growth in the given diapason increases the level of education of the population, which, in turn, leads to a higher intensity of antigovernment demonstrations.

authoritarian regimes · Democracy · democratic movement · Economic growth · GDP per capita · inverted U-shaped relationship · protest behavior · Corruption and Economic Development · Political Conflict and Governance · Political Theory and Democracy