Bias in Perceptions of Public Opinion among Political Elites
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3462931 |
|---|---|
| Authors | David E Broockman (0000-0002-0993-7073, corresponding author), Christopher Skovron (corresponding author) |
| Year | 2018 |
| Volume | 112 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 542-563 |
| Publication date | 2018-08-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Political Science Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0003-0554 • E-ISSN: 1537-5943 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s0003055418000011 |
| OpenAlex | W2790857376 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 235 |
| References cited | 67 |
The conservative asymmetry of elite polarization represents a significant puzzle. We argue that politicians can maintain systematic misperceptions of constituency opinion that may contribute to breakdowns in dyadic representation. We demonstrate this argument with original surveys of 3,765 politicians' perceptions of constituency opinion on nine issues. In 2012 and 2014, state legislative politicians from both parties dramatically overestimated their constituents' support for conservative policies on these issues, a pattern consistent across methods, districts, and states. Republicans drive much of this overestimation. Exploiting responses from politicians in the same district, we confirm these partisan differences within individual districts. Further evidence suggests that this overestimation may arise due to biases in who contacts politicians, as in recent years Republican citizens have been especially likely to contact legislators, especially fellow Republicans. Our findings suggest that a novel force can operate in elections and in legislatures: Politicians can systematically misperceive what their constituents want
Argument (complex analysis · Elite · Legislature · Perception · Polarization (electrochemistry · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Public opinion · Representation (politics · Sociology · State (computer science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Gender Politics and Representation · Law · Political Influence and Corporate Strategies · Psychology
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| Unique citing works | 235 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 29,38 |
| Citation span | 2018 - 2026 (9) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 232 |