Elite Misperceptions in Foreign Policy
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 19213610 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Joshua D Kertzer (0000-0002-7358-0638, Harvard University Press, corresponding author), Joshua W Busby (0000-0002-7532-4566, The University of Texas at Austin), Jonathan Monten (University College London), Jordan Tama (0000-0003-4571-1351, American University), Craig Kafura (0009-0000-5086-3216, Chicago Council on Global Affairs) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 56 |
| Publication date | 2026-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | British Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0007-1234 • E-ISSN: 1469-2112 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s0007123426101495 |
| OpenAlex | W7155072597 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 65 |
Many models of domestic politics in international relations presume that political elites correctly perceive public preferences, even as a growing body of research in political behavior calls this assumption into question. Leveraging seven paired surveys of 4,852 foreign policy elites and 13,687 members of the American public from 2004–24 on twenty-four different questions, we show elites systematically misperceive public opinion in foreign policy, misperceiving the public as more isolationist and inward-looking than it actually is. We replicate this finding with a paired experiment showing that elites effectively underestimate the public’s responsiveness to cues from international organizations, and that elites with isolationist stereotypes underestimate public approval the most. These dynamics – which operate predominantly through stereotyping, rather than projection – have important implications for the study of political elites, public opinion about foreign policy, and efforts to test theoretical models of domestic politics in international relations using public opinion data alone
Elite · Foreign policy · International conflict · International relations · Politics · Public opinion · Computational and Text Analysis Methods · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · International Relations and Foreign Policy
Social Cues
Sailing the Water's Edge
Securing Approval
How We See Ourselves and How We See Others
Leaders at War
Ten years of research on the false-consensus effect
Multilateralism and the Use of Force
Soldiers, Pollsters, and International Crises
Mobilizing America for An Internationalist Foreign Policy”
Presidents, Politics, and Military Strategy
Sources of Elected Representatives’ (Mis)Perceptions of Public Opinion
Social Categorization Moderates Social Projection
Image as Argument
Without Heirs? Assessing the Decline of Establishment Internationalism in U.S. Foreign Policy
The Historical Alternation of Moods in American Foreign Policy
Do Partisan Types Stop at the Water’s Edge
The Parties in Our Heads
Making Sense of Isolationism
Inaccurate Politicians
Public Beliefs About the Beliefs of the Public
Pluralistic Ignorance Across Issues and Over Time
(Mis)perceptions of Partisan Polarization in the American Public
Do Women Politicians Know More about Women’s Policy Preferences? Evidence from Canada
Projection in Politicians' Perceptions of Public Opinion
The Cognitive Revolution and the Political Psychology of Elite Decision Making
The Accuracy of Leader Perceptions of Constituency Views
The Attitudinal Bases for Responsiveness to Public Opinion among American Foreign Policy Officials
Let’s Get a Second Opinion
Public Opinion and Decisions About Military Force in Democracies
The Price of Peace
International Law and Public Attitudes Toward Torture
Elites in the Making and Breaking of Foreign Policy
Experiments and Surveys on Political Elites
Re‐Assessing Elite‐Public Gaps in Political Behavior
Leadership and Pandering
Competency Costs in Foreign Affairs
Decomposing Audience Costs
The people think what I think
Do Political Leaders Understand Public Opinion Better than Backbenchers
An ‘A’ for Effort
Pluralistic ignorance
Real and perceived attitude agreement in social networks
Perception of social distributions
Strategies for Social Inference
War and the Inner Circle
Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations
Constituency Influence in Congress
Assimilation and contrast effects in reactions to communication and attitude change
Backing up, not backing down
Atomic Aversion
Foreign Affairs and Issue Voting
Bias in Perceptions of Public Opinion among Political Elites
International Crises and Domestic Politics
Do Politicians Outside the United States Also Think Voters Are More Conservative than They Really Are
An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace
Understanding and Reducing Biases in Elite Beliefs About the Electorate
Public Opinion and the Democratic Peace
Legislative Staff and Representation in Congress
Mass Public Decisions on Go to War
The Decider's Dilemma
Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |