The Paradox of Not Voting
A Decision Theoretic Analysis
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3477592 |
|---|---|
| Authors | John Ferejohn (California Institute of Technology), John A Ferejohn, Morris P Fiorina (California Institute of Technology) |
| Year | 1974 |
| Volume | 68 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 525-536 |
| Publication date | 1974-06-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Political Science Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0003-0554 • E-ISSN: 1537-5943 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.2307/1959502 |
| OpenAlex | W4255464603 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 96 |
| References cited | 9 |
Various analysts have noted that the decision to vote in mass elections is difficult to justify from the standpoint of an expected utility maximization model. Put simply, the probability that a citizen's vote will affect the outcome is so small that the expected gains from voting are outweighed by the costs in time and effort. Such analyses treat rational behavior as synonymous with expected utility maximization. In this paper we show that an alternative criterion for decision making under uncertainty, minimax regret, specifies voting under quite general conditions. Both two and three candidate plurality elections are considered. Interestingly, a minimax regret decision maker never votes for his second choice in a three candidate election, whereas expected utility maximizers clearly may. Thus, the model proposed has implications for candidate choice as well as turnout
Anti-plurality voting · Bullet voting · Cardinal voting systems · Econometrics · Economics · Expected utility hypothesis · Mathematical economics · Maximization · Microeconomics · Minimax · Outcome (game theory · Political science · Regret · Turnout · Utility maximization · Voting · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Game Theory and Voting Systems · Media Influence and Politics
The Psychological Underpinnings of Political Behavior
The Formation of Voting Habits
Economic Imperialism
Wiek a uczestnictwo wyborcze w Polsce
Explanations and Designs in Political Science
Doing the Right Thing? The Voting Power Effect and Institutional Shareholder Voting
Turnout and the distortion of representation
What Leads to Voting Despite Intention to Abstain
Morris Fiorina’s Foundational Contributions to the Study of Partisanship and Mass Polarization
Are young voters more likely to regret their choice
Making a case for the rational, self‐regarding, ‘ethical’ voter… and solving the ‘Paradox of not voting’ in the process
Cooperative behavior and affect heuristic. When the rationality of love matters
El impacto de la participación en las primarias simultáneas y opcionales en la votación del candidato de la coalición en la elección presidencial
Rationality, affect, and vote choice
Judicial Selection and Criminal Punishment
Creating a Paradox
Messages Designed to Increase Perceived Electoral Closeness Increase Turnout
Maintaining the Machinery of Democracy
Local Improvement Districts as Political Participation Signals
Simultaneity, Asymmetric Devolution and Economic Incentives in Spanish Regional Elections
Prior Beliefs and Voter Turnout in the 1986 and 1988 Congressional Elections
Vindicating Anthony Downs
Why John Aldrich
Voting as a habit in new democracies – Evidence from Poland
A Fair Process Matters
Who is early voting? An individual level examination
Political corruption and voting in Romanian municipal elections
Models of voter turnout
Not-so-strategic voters
Teoría de juegos y elección racional
Why people vote
Why do people vote? An experiment in rationality
Expected closeness and turnout
Decision by Sortition
Public interest lobbies
Viability, preference, and coalitions in the french election of 1951
Costs of voting and nonvoting
Do people care about democracy? An experiment exploring the value of voting rights
Voter participation and the redistributive state
Political ignorance is both rational and radical
La abstención diferencial en la España de las autonomías. Pautas significativas y mecanismos explicativos
A Game‐Theoretic View of Voting
Why Do People Vote? A Psychological Analysis of the Causes of Voter Turnout
Field Theory and Rational Choice
A Bayesian approach to a sequential three‐decision problem
Congressional committees and the inter-state distribution of military spending
Degrees of Engagement
Constituency variations in aggregate voter behavour across the 1965–1983 German federal elections
Homo Sociologicus
La « rationalité axiologique
The Republicans Should Pray for Rain
Participación electoral en Chile, 1988-2001
Diferencias Generacionales en La Participación Electoral en Chile, 1988-2010
Do People Vote on the Basis of Minimax Regret
Big Five Personality Traits and Responses to Persuasive Appeals
Strategic Voting in a U.S. Senate Election
Reassessing Downs
Do Televised Presidential Ads Increase Voter Turnout? Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Does Corruption Information Inspire the Fight or Quash the Hope? A Field Experiment in Mexico on Voter Turnout, Choice, and Party Identification
The Progress of Political Science
Location, Location, Location
Closeness Counts in Canada
Strategic Abandonment or Sincerely Second Best? The 1999 Israeli Prime Ministerial Election
Candidate Behavior in Presidential Nomination Campaigns
Was treibt die Stimmbürger an die Urne? Eine empirische Untersuchung der Abstimmungsbeteiligung in der Schweiz, 1981-1999
Voter Turnout in Norway
Votes for Sale
Local Elections and Local Government Performance
The Contradictions of Rational Abstention
Perceptions vs. Actual Exposure to Electoral Competition and Effects on Political Participation
Electoral Competition and the Voter
Does Anxiety Make Us “Informed” Citizens? The Mediating Role of Information-Seeking and Internal Political Efficacy in Forming Political Attitudes
Compelled Turnout and Democratic Turnout
Crossing No Man's Land
Two Egocentric Sources of the Decision to Vote
Getting Out the (Newly-Enfranchised) Vote
The Poverty of Participation
Why do people vote? Rationality or emotion
Group incentives and rational voting
Is There a Broader-Deeper Trade-off in International Multilateral Agreements
Decline of electoral turnout
Economic conditions and the popularity of West German parties
Rationality and party activism
Politically Alienated Through Low‐Wage Work? Evidence from Panel Data
Ideology and the rationality of non-voting
Economic voting and information
Measuring 'closeness' in 3-candidate elections
Civic duty and turnout in the UK referendum on AV
Negative voting and party polarization
An entropy measure of uncertainty in vote choice
Benefits and costs of voting
What's at stake? A veto-player theory of voter turnout
Union Organizing Decisions in a Deteriorating Environment
The Two-party System and Duverger's Law
Efectos de la accesibilidad sobre la abstención electoral
Beyond Rational Choice Theory
| Unique citing works | 96 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,88 |
| Citation span | 1975 - 2026 (52) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 96 |