The Republicans Should Pray for Rain
Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 7410682 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Brad T Gomez (0000-0002-7442-0652), Thomas G Hansford (0000-0002-9905-4548, University of California, Merced), George A Krause, George Krause (0000-0001-6076-2363, University of Pittsburgh) |
| Year | 2007 |
| Volume | 69 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 649-663 |
| Publication date | 2007-06-28 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Journal of Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3816 • E-ISSN: 1468-2508 |
| Publisher | University of Chicago Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00565.x |
| OpenAlex | W2095618201 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 114 |
| References cited | 41 |
The relationship between bad weather and lower levels of voter turnout is widely espoused by media, political practitioners, and, perhaps, even political scientists. Yet, there is virtually no solid empirical evidence linking weather to voter participation. This paper provides an extensive test of the claim. We examine the effect of weather on voter turnout in 14 U.S. presidential elections. Using GIS interpolations, we employ meteorological data drawn from over 22,000 U.S. weather stations to provide election day estimates of rain and snow for each U.S. county. We find that, when compared to normal conditions, rain significantly reduces voter participation by a rate of just less than 1% per inch, while an inch of snowfall decreases turnout by almost .5%. Poor weather is also shown to benefit the Republican party's vote share. Indeed, the weather may have contributed to two Electoral College outcomes, the 1960 and 2000 presidential elections
Demographic economics · Economics · Geography · Meteorology · Political science · Politics · Presidential election · Presidential system · Rain and snow mixed · Snow · Turnout · Voter turnout · Voting · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Gender Politics and Representation · Law · Public Administration
Rain, temperature, and votes
Global harms, local profits
The Politics of Disaster Relief
Making Young Voters
Irrelevant events affect voters' evaluations of government performance
Weather Effects on Social Movements
Polarization, abstention, and the median voter theorem
A systematic review study on the reasons preventing voters from casting their votes
Rainy day politics. An instrumental variables approach to the effect of parties on political outcomes
The heterogeneous effects of internet voting
Random Events, Economic Losses, and Retrospective Voting
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The Effect of Newspaper Entry and Exit on Electoral Politics
Can Chants in the Street Change Parliament’s Tune? The Effects of the 15M Social Movement on Spanish Elections
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Going positive
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Do Peers respond? Attendance and critical events
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When Increased Turnout Matters
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Does Polarisation of Opinions Lead to Polarisation of Platforms? The Case of Correlation Neglect
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Liberals should pray for rain
Negative Voters? Electoral Competition with Loss-Aversion
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Politically Viable U.S. Electoral College Reform
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Parties and Electoral Performance in the Market for Political Consultants
Noisy Retrospection
Randomization Inference with Rainfall Data
Scale, Context, and Heterogeneity
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When Time Is of the Essence
Mediating the Electoral Connection
Turning Personal Experience into Political Attitudes
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Does Measurement Matter? The Case of VAP and VEP in Models of Voter Turnout in the United States
Unleash Britain’s Potential (To Go Negative)
Election Closeness, Habit Formation and Voter Turnout
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Do natural disasters help the environment? How voters respond and what that means
Regular Voters, Marginal Voters and the Electoral Effects of Turnout
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Friends from Across the Aisle
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After the Flood
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Voting in the rain
The electoral benefits of environmental position‐taking
Seven Reasons Why
Nota
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Death and Turnout
Surge and Decline
Why Should the Republicans Pray for Rain? Electoral Consequences of Rainfall Revisited
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Coattails, Raincoats, and Congressional Election Outcomes
Mobilization and Voter Turnout
Sandy the Rainmaker
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Party-voter linkages derived from the calculus of voting model
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Participation in America
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Follow the Leader
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Does rain help the Republicans? Theory and evidence on turnout and the vote
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The Voting Decision
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Attitudes, Opportunities and Incentives
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Law and Data
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Aggression as a function of ambient temperature and prior anger arousal
Turnout and the Vote
Does Heavy Turnout Help Democrats in Presidential Elections
The Paradox of Not Voting
Becoming a Habitual Voter
The Effect of Registration Laws on Voter Turnout
Partisan Effects of Voter Turnout in Senatorial and Gubernatorial Elections
The Myth of the Vanishing Voter
Registration and Voting
American Voting Participation
| Unique citing works | 114 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 6,33 |
| Citation span | 2008 - 2026 (19) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 112 |