Universal yet local
Estimating county-level fertility ideals and intentions in China
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3712239 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Donghui Wang (0000-0002-5403-7947), Yongai Jin (0000-0001-6534-2544), Tao Liu (0000-0001-5480-2568) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 53 |
| Pages | 525-568 |
| Publication date | 2025-09-18 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Demographic Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1435-9871 • E-ISSN: 2363-7064 |
| Publisher | Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (PUBLISHER • DE) |
| DOI | 10.4054/demres.2025.53.18 |
| OpenAlex | W4414272956 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 82 |
BACKGROUNDUnderstanding China's persistent low fertility requires detailed information regarding fertility attitudes at a finer geographic scale.However, data on fertility preferences at appropriate spatial resolutions are often unavailable. OBJECTIVEThis study aims to estimate county-level fertility ideals and intentions in China. METHODSThis study employs the multilevel regression and post-stratification method to estimate county-level fertility ideals and intentions.Fertility ideals and intentions data are drawn from a large national fertility survey, while post-stratification data come from the 2020 population census.The estimates are internally validated using a split sample approach and externally validated against independent national and regional surveys. RESULTSThe estimates reveal that the county-level average ideal number of children for women of reproductive age is 1.98 (ranging from 1.29 to 3.78), while the average for the intended number of children is 1.81, with a broader range (1.02 to 3.96).The spatial distribution of fertility ideals exhibits a north-south contrast, suggesting cultural influences on family norms.Fertility intentions show coastal-inland disparities, underscoring socioeconomic conditions.Within-province variations are no less than between-province variations
China · Fertility · Multilevel model · Population · Socioeconomic status · Survey data collection · Total fertility rate · Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences · Family Dynamics and Relationships · Intergenerational Family Dynamics and Caregiving
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| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2026 - 2026 (1) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |