Fluctuations in Uncertainty
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4030265 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Nena Bloom (0000-0002-1600-7819, National Bureau of Economic Research, corresponding author), Nicholas Bloom (Professor of Economics, Stanford University, Stanford, California, Co-Director of the Productivity Program, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Research Fellow, Center for Economic Performance, London School of Economics, London, United Kingdom, and Research Fellow, Center for Economic and Policy Research, London, United Kingdom. .) |
| Year | 2014 |
| Volume | 28 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 153-176 |
| Publication date | 2014-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Journal of Economic Perspectives (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0895-3309 • E-ISSN: 1944-7965 |
| Publisher | American Economic Association (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1257/jep.28.2.153 |
| OpenAlex | W3122846673 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 152 |
| References cited | 39 |
Uncertainty is an amorphous concept. It reflects uncertainty in the minds of consumers, managers, and policymakers about possible futures. It is also a broad concept, including uncertainty over the path of macro phenomena like GDP growth, micro phenomena like the growth rate of firms, and noneconomic events like war and climate change. In this essay, I address four questions about uncertainty. First, what are some facts and patterns about economic uncertainty? Both macro and micro uncertainty appear to rise sharply in recessions and fall in booms. Uncertainty also varies heavily across countries-developing countries appear to have about one-third more macro uncertainty than developed countries. Second, why does uncertainty vary during business cycles? Third, do fluctuations in uncertainty affect behavior? Fourth, has higher uncertainty worsened the Great Recession and slowed the recovery? Much of this discussion is based on research on uncertainty from the last five years, reflecting the recent growth of the literature
Boom · Business cycle · Econometrics · Economics · Financial economics · Futures contract · Global recession · Macro · Macroeconomics · Recession · Statistics · Uncertainty analysis · Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis · Computer Science · Environmental Science · Market Dynamics and Volatility · Mathematics · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
Study of the Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on Oil Prices
Role of Socioeconomic Uncertainty on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Inflows and Economic Growth in Asean
Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth
The social-safety system
Pursuing safety in social connection regulates the risk-regulation, social-safety, and behavioral-immune systems
Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics
Business Creation and Political Turmoil
The impact of fundamental uncertainties on economic growth
Commodity Futures Volatility
Really Uncertain Business Cycles
Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks
Economic uncertainty before and during the Covid-19 pandemic
Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty
Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration
Seeing risk, seizing opportunity
Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire
Populism’s original sin
Identifying Uncertainty Shocks Using the Price of Gold
Economic Policy Uncertainty, Social Development, Political Regimes and Environmental Quality
Populism's Original Sin
Export decision under risk
Enterprise digital transformation and inefficient investment
Do business and consumer confidence in China respond to energy-related uncertainty? A quantile-based analysis
Exploring time-varying impact of world pandemic uncertainty on China's commodity prices using TVP-SVAR-SV model
Pandemics and Income Inequality
Effects of Pandemics on Corporate Innovation
The Influence of Macroeconomic and Political Uncertainty on Corporate Risk-Taking
Design, measurement, and characteristic analysis of uncertainty indices for education fiscal policies
Exploring the association between climate change concern and mitigation behaviour between societies
The effect of economic policy uncertainty on US tourism net exports
Expecting the unexpected
Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks
Assessing international commonality in macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects
Global financial uncertainty
Did marginal propensities to consume change with the housing boom and bust
Which external shock matters in small open economies? Global risk aversion vs. US economic policy uncertainty
Effect of Business Uncertainty on Turnover
Fast & furious
The Language of Uncertainty
Exports and foreign direct investment in the presence of downside risk
Uncertainty and the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the United States and Brazil
Measuring economic country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye
The effects of macro uncertainty shocks in the euro area
Labour market uncertainty after the irruption of Covid-19
Uncertainty and long-run economy
Measuring Knightian uncertainty
Economic disasters and aggregate investment
Macroeconomic effects of uncertainty
Effectiveness of monetary policy under the high and low economic uncertainty states
Comparing survey measures of firms’ expectations and uncertainty
Fiscal policy in the US
Relationship between unemployment and policy uncertainty in Nigeria
The impact of fossil fuel subsidies on income inequality
Disagreement About Fiscal Policy
Markup Dispersion and Firm Entry
How did consumers react to the Covid‐19 pandemic over time
Uncertainty and Labour Force Participation
The option value of life
Politically induced uncertainty and asset-market valuation
Foreign investor reactions to risk and uncertainty in antitrust
Political elections and corporate investment
The role of major markets in predicting the U.S. municipal green bond market performance
Environmental behavioral perceptions under uncertainty of alternative economic futures
Carbon policies and productivity uncertainty
Aversion and ambiguity
Uncertainty measures and inflation dynamics in selected global players
The effect of world policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk factors on export-led growth for Japan
Energy security risk in the age of economic uncertainty
Measuring US regional economic uncertainty
How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression
Do energy policy uncertainty, trade openness, and renewable energy drive artificial intelligence investment? Evidence from the United States
Policy uncertainty and renewable energy
National culture and corporate investment
Impact of exchange rate and its volatility on domestic consumption in India and Pakistan
When Politics Meets Finance
Enhancing Economic Activity by Mitigating Uncertainty
What drives period fertility rates during post-recession spells
Role of complementary and competitive relationships among multiple objectives in conservation investment decisions
The costs of geopolitical risk and the impact of the EU cohesion policy
Technocratic reason in hard times
How does uncertainty drive the bank lending channel of monetary policy
Analysis of the impact of financial and labour uncertainty on suicide mortality in England
A time-varying expectations formation mechanism
Fiscal policy for households and public budget constraint in Italy
Local demand shocks and firms' survival
Economic Challenges of Economic Diversification and Sustainability in the GCC Countries
Multifaceted programs targeting women in fragile settings
Macroinsurance for microenterprises
Readiness, riskiness and renewables
Impact of climate policy uncertainty on enterprises’ green technology innovation
Measurement for Media Sensitive-Trade Nexus
Unlocking the Puzzle
Macroeconomic Conditions as Determinants of Self‐Rated Poverty
Climate Disasters and Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts
Economists’ Political Donations and GDP Forecast Accuracy
Using Survey Information for Improving the Density Nowcasting of U.S. GDP
The Evolving Impact of Global, Region-Specific, and Country-Specific Uncertainty
Gaussian Process Vector Autoregressions and Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Max Share Identification of Multiple Shocks
Bootstrap Inference for Quantile Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments with Matched Pairs
The Value of Waiting to Invest
Risk Shocks
Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment
Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks
Unequal we stand
Uncertainty and Economic Activity
Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations
Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics
Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity
The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression
Volatility and Development
Income Variance Dynamics and Heterogeneity
Market Selection, Reallocation, and Restructuring in the U.S. Retail Trade Sector in the 1990s
Adjustment of Consumers' Durables Stocks
Displaced Capital
The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk
Cyclical Dynamics in Idiosyncratic Labor Market Risk
| Unique citing works | 152 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 13,82 |
| Citation span | 2015 - 2026 (12) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 144 |