Momentum Under a Gradual Approach to Zero Growth

Bibliographic Data

ID4267453
AuthorsRobert Schoen (0000-0001-6889-9954), Young Jin Kim (0000-0002-6235-6550)
Year1998
Volume52
Issue3
Pages295-299
Publication date1998-11-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenuePopulation Studies (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0032-4728 • E-ISSN: 1477-4747
PublisherInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/0032472031000150476
OpenAlexW1987871351
LanguageEN
Citations received10

A population's growth potential is significantly underestimated by conventional calculations of population momentum which assume an immediate drop to replacement level fertility. Here we assume that the growth rate of births linearly declines to zero over a specified time interval, and find simple and intuitively meaningful expressions for the size of the ultimate birth cohort and the resultant population momentum. In particular, we find that the increase in the number of births over the transition is equal to growth at the initial rate for half the time needed to attain a constant birth level. Thus our formula readily calculates the growth potential of a population under a gradual approach to stationarity without the need for a numerical projection. Calculations for actual and hypothetical populations are presented to show the demographic impact of such gradual approaches to zero growth

Algorithm · Birth rate · Constant (computer programming) · Drop (telecommunication) · Economics · Fertility · Geometry · Growth rate · Momentum (technical analysis) · Physics · Population · Population growth · Population momentum · Population projection · Projection (relational algebra) · Statistical physics · Statistics · Zero (linguistics) · Computer Science · Demography · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Mathematics

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