A modified Lee-Carter model for analysing short-base-period data

Bibliographic Data

ID4269286
AuthorsBojuan Barbara Zhao (0000-0001-5880-080X, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, corresponding author)
Year2012
Volume66
Issue1
Pages39-52
Publication date2012-03-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenuePopulation Studies (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0032-4728 • E-ISSN: 1477-4747
PublisherInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/00324728.2011.636839
PMID22176346
OpenAlexW1978568158
LanguageEN
References cited20

This paper introduces a new modified Lee-Carter model for analysing short-base-period mortality data, for which the original Lee-Carter model produces severely fluctuating predicted age-specific mortality. Approximating the unknown parameters in the modified model by linearized cubic splines and other additive functions, the model can be simplified into a logistic regression when fitted to binomial data. The expected death rate estimated from the modified model is smooth, not only over ages but also over years. The analysis of mortality data in China (2000-08) demonstrates the advantages of the new model over existing models

Base (topology) · Econometrics · Growth model · Logistic regression · Mathematical analysis · Mathematical economics · Negative binomial distribution · Period (music) · Physics · Statistics · Applied Mathematics · demographic modeling and climate adaptation · Global Health Care Issues · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Mathematics

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