Applying Lee-Carter under conditions of variable mortality decline
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 7980097 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Heather Booth (0000-0002-8356-0534, Australian National University), JOHN MAINDONALD, John H Maindonald (0000-0002-0106-9224), Len Smith (0000-0002-5477-0874) |
| Year | 2002 |
| Volume | 56 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 325-336 |
| Publication date | 2002-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Population Studies (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0032-4728 • E-ISSN: 1477-4747 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/00324720215935 |
| PMID | 12553330 |
| OpenAlex | W2040375181 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 54 |
| References cited | 18 |
The Lee-Carter method of mortality forecasting assumes an invariant age component and most applications have adopted a linear time component. The use of the method with Australian data is compromised by significant departures from linearity in the time component and changes over time in the age component. We modify the method to adjust the time component to reproduce the age distribution of deaths, rather than total deaths, and to determine the optimal fitting period in order to address non-linearity in the time component. In the Australian case the modification has the added advantage that the assumption of invariance is better met. For Australian data, the modifications result in higher forecast life expectancy than the original Lee-Carter method and official projections, and a 50 per cent reduction in forecast error. The model is also expanded to take account of age-time interactions by incorporating additional terms, but these are not readily incorporated into forecasts
Component (thermodynamics) · Econometrics · Invariant (physics) · Life expectancy · Linear system · Linearity · LTI system theory · Population · Statistics · Variable (mathematics) · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Demography · Engineering · Global Health Care Issues · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Mathematics
A Practitioner-Oriented Evaluation of Mortality Forecasting Methods
Multi-population models to handle mortality crises in forecasting mortality
Australia's uncertain demographic future
Demographic forecasting
Age-Specific Mortality Forecasting in Kazakhstan
Do Different Models Induce Changes in Mortality Indicators? That Is a Key Question for Extending the Lee-Carter Model
Prediction of China’s Population Mortality under Limited Data
The role of climate risk in shaping longevity dynamics
Living longer in high longevity risk
Chronic non-communicable diseases in Argentina
A multi-population evaluation of the Poisson common factor model for projecting mortality jointly for both sexes
Forecasting mortality rates
Alternative state and national projections of Australia’s very elderly population
Future life expectancy in Australia, Europe, Japan and North America
Stochastic modelling of the hybrid survival curve
A modified common factor model for modelling mortality jointly for both sexes
Projected impact of diabetes on the Costa Rican healthcare system
Gender disparities in the synergistic impact of high sugar intake and depression on COPD
The evolution of demographic methods
Annuity-Based Assessment of Uncertainty in Mortality
Recent developments in population projection methodology
What Can We Learn from the Functional Clustering of Mortality Data? An Application to the Human Mortality Database
Smoothing, Decomposing and Forecasting Mortality Rates
Under-5 Mortality Rates in G7 Countries
Does the Impact of the Tobacco Epidemic Explain Structural Changes in the Decline of Mortality
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Optimizing the Lee-Carter Approach in the Presence of Structural Changes in Time and Age Patterns of Mortality Improvements
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How long might the younger-old live
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Modelling and forecasting adult age-at-death distributions
A Poisson common factor model for projecting mortality and life expectancy jointly for females and males
A modified Lee-Carter model for analysing short-base-period data
A modal age at death approach to forecasting adult mortality
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Completing incomplete cohort fertility schedules
Reforging the Wedding Ring
Smooth constrained mortality forecasting
Mortality modelling with arrival of additional year of mortality data
Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by Topals
Lee-Carter mortality forecasting
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Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy
The impact of the choice of life table statistics when forecasting mortality
Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy
Point and interval forecasts of age-specific life expectancies
A cost of living longer
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Applied Mathematical Demography
A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries
The age pattern of mortality
Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality
Forecasting Mortality
Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at olderages
Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality
Applied Mathematical Demography (Statistics for Biology and Health)
Is the Pace of Japanese Mortality Decline Converging Toward International Trends
Reductions in Mortality at Advanced Ages
| Unique citing works | 54 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2,45 |
| Citation span | 2004 - 2026 (23) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 51 |