Man as an intuitive statistician
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4418787 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Cameron R Peterson (University of Michigan), Lee Roy Beach (0000-0003-0712-8886) |
| Year | 1967 |
| Volume | 68 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 29-46 |
| Publication date | 1967-07-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Psychological Bulletin (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0033-2909 • E-ISSN: 1939-1455 |
| Publisher | American Psychological Association (APA) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1037/h0024722 |
| PMID | 6046307 |
| OpenAlex | W1995950839 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 124 |
| References cited | 7 |
Biology · Cognitive psychology · MEDLINE · Statistician · Statistics · Mathematics · Philosophy and History of Science · Probability and Statistical Research · Psychology
Mind, Body, World
Judgment of Covariation
Pandemic Shocks and Household Spending
Why Is the Crowd Divided? Attribution for Dispersion in Online Word of Mouth
Évaluer et modéliser les risques
Integration theory and attitude change
A probabilistic analysis of the relationships among belief and attitudes
Judgment of covariation by social perceivers
Decision theory analysis of social power
Beyond discrete biases
Juror decision-making models
Stereotyping
A meta-analytic review of two modes of learning and the description-experience gap
Human contingency judgments
A Bayesian analysis of attribution processes
Instrumentality theories
Perception of social distributions
Illusory correlation and the maintenance of stereotypic beliefs
Memory accessibility and probability judgments
Bayesian inference
Salience of logical relationships among beliefs as a factor in persuasion
On the self-erasing nature of errors of prediction
Lay persons' sensitivity to statistical information
Inferences of ability and effort
Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction
Accuracy in the judgment of in-group and out-group variability
Consensus, Self‐Other Agreement, and Accuracy in Personality Judgment
Another Look at Reasoning Experiments
Observational and theoretical terms in psychology
Cognitive Social Psychology and Attitude Change
Cognitive Social Psychology
The Role of Probabilistic and Syllogistic Reasoning in Cognitive Organization and Social Inference
Cognitive Approaches to Judgment and Decision Making
A Cognitive -Attributional Analysis of Stereotyping1
Cognitive Algebra
Sampling in Judgment and Decision Making
From covariation to causation
Ambiguity and uncertainty in probabilistic inference.
Is human cognition adaptive?
Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment
Subjective probability
Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?
Nudging and Boosting
The Theory of Risk Homeostasis
Order effects in belief updating
The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments
Computational rationality
The base rate fallacy reconsidered
Language Acquisition as Rational Contingency Learning
Errors and mistakes
Role of Temporal Contiguity in Subjective Prediction
Association of Need for Cognition With Judgments of Height, Weight, and Body Fat Covariation
Rational Polarization
An Evaluation of the Conditional Probability Strategy and Rule-Analysis Methodology in Judgments of Covariation
Effects of Causal and Noncausal Sequences of Information on Subjective Prediction
A Model of Scientific Data Reasoning
Intellectual Humility and Humbling Environments
The Future of Decisions From Experience
Further perceptions of probability
Experts use base rates in real-world sequential decisions
What’s in a sample? Epistemic uncertainty and metacognitive awareness in risk taking
The intuitive conceptualization and perception of variance
A description–experience gap in statistical intuitions
Compatibility effects in the perception of dispersion
When intuitive Bayesians need to be good readers
Neurocognitive processes underlying heuristic and normative probability judgments
Learning from conditional probabilities
A reply to Luc Bovens
Is the mind Bayesian? The case for agnosticism
Developmental differences in baserate estimates of social behaviors and attitudes
Old and New Directions in Strategy Selection
How people deal with …………………………. outliers
Good fortune but bad luck? Predictable versus unpredictable gains and losses in risky choice
The same but different
Explaining High Conjunction Fallacy Rates
Eyes on the Prize? Evidence of Diminishing Attention to Experienced and Foregone Outcomes in Repeated Experiential Choice
The public's probabilistic numeracy
Noisy Retrieval of Experienced Probabilities Underlies Rational Judgment of Uncertain Multiple Events
Valuation and estimation from experience
Do Bettors Correctly Perceive Odds? Three Studies of How Bettors Interpret Betting Odds as Probabilistic Information
Judgmental extrapolation and market overreaction
The process of sex attribution
Misperception in international politics
The Rhetoric of Irrationality
Three Misleading Assumptions in the Customary Rhetoric of the Bias Literature
The Rationality of Risky Decisions
The Intuitive Psychologist And His Shortcomings
The rationality wars
Cognition et formation académique
When the glass is half‐empty
Strength of belief and risk
Rational Polarization
The effect of target group size on risk judgments and comparative optimism
Logical, Statistical, and Causal Reasoning
Social Categorization and the Representation of Variability Information
Intuitive judgments of proportions, means, and variances
Quasi-statistical inference in rating behavior I. Preliminary investigations
Applied Cognitive Psychology and the “Strong Replacement” of Epistemology by Normative Psychology
Bias and error in human judgment
The interpretation of uncertainty in ecological rationality
The growth of logical thinking
Behavioral Decision Theory
Bayesian statistical inference for psychological research.
Essai Philosophique Sur Les Probabilités
Categorizing Externally Distributed Stimulus Samples for Unequal Molar Probabilities
Recognition of taboo stimuli as a function of exposure time
The theory of decision making
| Unique citing works | 124 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2,18 |
| Citation span | 1969 - 2026 (58) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 94 |