Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6203930 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Icek Ajzen (0000-0001-8101-6300, corresponding author) |
| Year | 1977 |
| Volume | 35 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 303-314 |
| Publication date | 1977-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3514 • E-ISSN: 1939-1315 |
| Publisher | American Psychological Association (APA) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1037/0022-3514.35.5.303 |
| OpenAlex | W2168158137 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 121 |
| References cited | 16 |
Base (topology) · Cognitive psychology · Advanced Text Analysis Techniques · Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Psychology · Social Psychology
The role of suspect development practices in eyewitness identification accuracy and racial disparities in wrongful conviction
Prescriptive approaches to communicating the risk of violence in actuarial risk assessment
Searching for commonalities in human judgement
A case study of expert judgment
The Functions of Attributions
Representativeness in Foreign Policy Judgments
The Role of Consumers' Intuitions in Inference Making
The trouble with overconfidence
How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction
Judgment of covariation by social perceivers
The relative accuracy of self-predictions and judgments by others in psychological assessment
Heuristics and biases
Patient variable biases in clinical judgment
"The psychology of being "right
Consensus information, prediction, and causal attribution
Perceiver, target, and situational influences on social cognition
Lay persons' sensitivity to statistical information
A stage–state analysis of the life course
Extension of the Kelley attribution model
Role of disconfirmed expectancies in the instigation of attributional processing
Effects of cue consistency and value on base-rate utilization
Availability of well-defined internal knowledge and the attitude formation process
Popular induction
Another Look at Reasoning Experiments
Group consensus processes on cognitive bias tasks
Dangerousness
In defense of the citation bias in the judgment literature
Adaptive Thinking
Judgment and Decision Making
Content and Discontent
Rumor psychology
Heuristics and Biases
Heuristics and biases as measures of critical thinking
Norm theory
The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning.
The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence
Assessment of covariation by humans and animals
Extensional versus intuitive reasoning
Stalking the elusive "vividness" effect.
Lay epistemo-logic—process and contents
Social Cognition and Social Perception
On the reality of cognitive illusions.
Individual differences in reasoning
Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment
Individual differences in rational thought.
A schematic model of dispositional attribution in interpersonal perception.
Support theory
The hot hand in basketball
The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments
Representativeness Revisited
Toward an Integration of Cognitive and Motivational Perspectives on Social Inference
Comparing the persuasiveness of narrative and statistical evidence using meta‐analysis
The base rate fallacy reconsidered
What does and does not alleviate base-rate neglect under direct experience
How are base-rates used, when they are used
How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear
Adults' Assessments of Children's Accident Risks
Effects of Causal and Noncausal Sequences of Information on Subjective Prediction
On the Reality of the Base-Rate Fallacy
The environmental malleability of base-rate neglect
The parallelism of cognitive economy and physiological economy
The Effect of Counterfactual Potency on Behavioral Intentions
On the generality and cognitive basis of base-rate neglect
Balancing Play and Formal Training in the Design of Serious Games
Information seeking on Bayesian conditional probability problems
Judgmental extrapolation and market overreaction
Gender and height
Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation
The Affect Heuristic
Rumor psychology
Problem solving in judgment under uncertainty
Base rates can affect individual predictions
Analogical reasoning in social judgment
Expert psychological testimony in rape trials
"Exploring the "planning fallacy
How alike is it versus how likely is it
Automatic and controlled components of judgment and decision making
Propensities and counterfactuals
Overconfidence, base rates and outcome positivity/negativity of predicted events
Naked statistical evidence of liability
Explaining the evidence
The commonness fallacy
Interpersonal engagement in social perception
On the relative independence of thinking biases and cognitive ability
Once is enough
Bayesian inference
Social roles and strategies in prediction
Insensitivity to sample bias
Everyday base rates (sex stereotypes)
Relative importance of prior and immediate events
On the social psychology of the stock market
Ambiguity and self-evaluation
Consistency and bias in the attribution of attitudes
Conversational conventions, order of information acquisition, and the effect of base rates and individuating information on social judgments
When do base rates affect predictions
Effects of rape victim resistance, assault outcome, and sex of observer on attributions about rape
The Social Judgeability Approach to Stereotypes
Logical, Statistical, and Causal Reasoning
Subjective metaphysics and learning from experience
Language attitudes in multilingual settings
Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment
Subjective probability
Behavioral Decision Theory
Judgment under Uncertainty
On the psychology of prediction.
The psychology of interpersonal relations.
Cue utilization and attributional judgments for success and failure
Use of consensus information in causal attributions as a function of temporal presentation and availability of direct information
The lesser influence of consensus than distinctiveness information on causal attributions
Processing the information contained in another's behavior
A probabilistic analysis of the relationships among belief and attitudes
Attribution and the psychology of prediction
Correlational bias in observer ratings
Availability
A Bayesian analysis of attribution processes
Man as an intuitive statistician
| Unique citing works | 121 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2,52 |
| Citation span | 1978 - 2025 (48) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 94 |