Economic activity and suicides

Causal evidence from macroeconomic shocks in England and Wales

Bibliographic Data

ID4600134
AuthorsGabriele M Lepori (0000-0002-2619-227X, University of Southampton, corresponding author), Sara Morgan (0000-0001-8346-6655, University of Southampton), Borna A Assarian (0009-0005-4646-1528, University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust), Tapas Mishra (0000-0002-6902-2326, University of Southampton)
Year2024
Volume342
Pages116538
Publication date2024-02-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueSocial Science & Medicine (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0277-9536 • E-ISSN: 1873-5347
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.socscimed.2023.116538
PMID38181719
OpenAlexW4390401485
LanguageEN
Citations received5
References cited43

The relationship between economic activity and suicides has been the subject of much scrutiny, but the focus in the extant literature has been almost exclusively on estimating associations rather than causal effects. In this paper, using data from England and Wales between January 1, 1997 and December 31, 2017, we propose a plausible set of assumptions to estimate the causal impacts of well-known macroeconomic variables on the daily suicide rate. Our identification strategy relies on scheduled macroeconomic announcements and professional economic forecasts. An important advantage of using these variables to model suicide rates is that they can efficiently capture the elements of 'surprise or shock' via the observed difference between how the economy actually performed and how it was expected to perform. Provided that professional forecasts are unbiased and efficient, the estimated 'surprises or shocks' are 'as good as random', and therefore are exogenous. We employ time series regressions and present robust evidence that these exogenous macroeconomic shocks affect the suicide rate. Overall, our results are consistent with economic theory that shocks that reduce estimated permanent income, and therefore expected lifetime utility, can propel suicide rates. Specifically, at the population level, negative shocks to consumer confidence and house prices accelerate the suicide rate. However, there is evidence of behavioural heterogeneity between sexes, states of the economy, and levels of public trust in government. Negative shocks to the retail price index (RPI) raise the suicide rate for males. Negative shocks to the growth rate in gross domestic product (GDP) raise the population suicide rate when the economy is doing poorly. When public trust in government is low, increases in the unemployment rate increase the suicide rate for females

Consumer confidence index · Demographic economics · Econometrics · Economics · Macroeconomics · Population · Scrutiny · Shock (circulatory · Demography · Employment and Welfare Studies · Health disparities and outcomes · Medicine · Suicide and Self-Harm Studies

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