The Truthiness about Hurricane Catastrophe Models
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 5338261 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jessica Weinkle (0000-0002-0996-9948, University of North Carolina Wilmington, corresponding author), Roger Pielke, Roger A Pielke (0000-0002-9617-8764, Sports Governance Center, CU Athletics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA) |
| Year | 2017 |
| Volume | 42 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 547-576 |
| Publication date | 2017-07-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Science Technology & Human Values (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0162-2439 • E-ISSN: 1552-8251 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0162243916671201 |
| OpenAlex | W2540442197 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 15 |
| References cited | 44 |
In recent years, US policy makers have faced persistent calls for the price of flood and hurricane insurance cover to reflect the true or real risk. The appeal to a true or real measure of risk is rooted in two assumptions. First, scientific research can provide an accurate measure of risk. Second, this information can and should dictate decision-making about the cost of insurance. As a result, contemporary disputes over the cost of catastrophe insurance coverage, hurricane risk being a prime example, become technical battles over estimating risk. Using examples from the Florida hurricane rate-making decision context, we provide a quantitative investigation of the integrity of these two assumptions. We argue that catastrophe models are politically stylized views of the intractable scientific problem of precise characterization of hurricane risk. Faced with many conflicting scientific theories, model theorists use choice and preference for outcomes to develop a model. Models therefore come to include political positions on relevant knowledge and the risk that society ought to manage. Earnest consideration of model capabilities and inherent uncertainties may help evolve public debate from one focused on "true" or "real" measures of risk, of which there are many, toward one of improved understanding and management of insurance regimes
Actuarial science · Appeal · Business · Economics · Geography · Microeconomics · Political science · Risk management · Scarcity · Stylized fact · Disaster Management and Resilience · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Law · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Finance
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Making financial sense of the future’
Economic ‘normalisation’ of disaster losses 1998–2020
Reading in the dark
Experts, regulatory capture, and the “governor's dilemma
Machine's Eye View
The Sociology of Climate Change as a Sociology of Loss
The real estate risk fix
The moral economies of natural disasters insurance
Hazardous simulations
Insurance and the temporality of climate ethics
Scientific method
Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth
Experiments versus models
Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States
Embracing Risk
Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science
States of Knowledge
How science makes environmental controversies worse
Reconciling the supply of scientific information with user demands
What is a problem that we may solve it
Overdetermined problems in science
Defining risk
Risk as feelings
| Citations per year | 1.67 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2017 - 2026 (10) |
| Highly cited | No |