Quality Meets Quantity
Case Studies, Conditional Probability, and Counterfactuals
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 5845646 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jasjeet S Sekhon (0009-0003-1218-0117, Harvard University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2004 |
| Volume | 2 |
| Issue | 02 |
| Publication date | 2004-06-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Perspectives on Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1537-5927 • E-ISSN: 1541-0986 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s1537592704040150 |
| OpenAlex | W2105682052 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 40 |
| References cited | 30 |
In contrast to statistical methods, a number of case study methods-collectively referred to as Mill's methods, used by generations of social science researchers-only consider deterministic relationships. They do so to their detriment because heeding the basic lessons of statistical inference can prevent serious inferential errors. Of particular importance is the use of conditional probabilities to compare relevant counterfactuals. A prominent example of work using Mill's methods is Theda Skocpol's States and Social Revolutions. Barbara Geddes's widely assigned critique of Skocpol's claim of a causal relationship between foreign threat and social revolution is valid if this relationship is considered to be deterministic. If, however, we interpret Skocpol's hypothesized causal relationship to be probabilistic, Geddes's data support Skocpol's hypothesis. But Skocpol, unlike Geddes, failed to provide the data necessary to compare conditional probabilities. Also problematic for Skocpol is the fact that when one makes causal inferences, conditional probabilities are of interest only insofar as they provide information about relevant counterfactuals.Jasjeet S. Sekhon thanks Walter R. Mebane Jr., Henry Brady, Bear Braumoeller, Shigeo Hirano, Gary King, John Londregan, Bruce Rusk, Theda Skocpol, Suzanne M. Smith, Jonathan N. Wand, the editors of Perspectives on Politics, and three anonymous reviewers for valuable comments and advice
Causal model · Counterfactual conditional · Relevance · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Political Conflict and Governance · Qualitative Comparative Analysis Research
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Causation, Theory, and Policy in the Social Sciences
Causal Mechanisms
A Centripetal Theory of Democratic Governance
Democratization and Research Methods
How do social scientists reach causal inferences? A study of reception
Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy
Colonialism, Landlords, and Public Goods Provision in India
Case Selection for Case‐Study Analysis
Razões emergentes para a validade dos estudos de caso na ciência política comparada
Sete elementos do processo de seleção de casos
A Tale of Two Cultures
Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy
Genetic Matching for Estimating Causal Effects
Comparative political studies
Vested interests
Empirical Comparative Law
Bringing the neighbors in
Content with Failure? Cultural Consolidation and the Absence of Nationalist Mobilization in the Case of the Occitans in France
Ontology, Epistemology, and Multimethod Research in Political Science
Legitimacy and the Use of Natural Resources in Kruger National Park, South Africa
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Qualitative Comparative Analysis
Contrasting and combining the historical counterfactual method and the synthetic control method
The Enduring Indispensability of the Controlled Comparison
Set-Theoretic Comparative Methods
Methodological Rorschach Tests
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The electoral consequences of voter ignorance
Understanding and addressing the unintended effects of aid localisation
Multilevel Analysis of Protest
The Problem of Infinite Regress
Why Causal Mechanisms and Process Tracing Should Alter Case Selection Guidance
A Careful Look at Modern Case Selection Methods
Increasing Inferential Leverage in the Comparative Method
Fuzzy-Set Social Science
Emerging Agendas and Recurrent Strategies in Historical Sociology
On the Application of Probability Theory to Agricultural Experiments. Essay on Principles. Section 9
Bayesian Inference for Causal Effects
Estimating causal effects of treatments in randomized and nonrandomized studies.
Statistics and Causal Inference
Case Studies and the Statistical Worldview
What Counts as Evidence? Reply
Microfoundations, Method, and Causation
Black Candidates and Black Voters
Testing for Necessary and/or Sufficient Causation
How the Cases You Choose Affect the Answers You Get
The Reverend and the Ravens
Watching Your Posterior
Evidence and Inference in the Comparative Case Study
Pooling Disparate Observations
Robust Estimation and Outlier Detection for Overdispersed Multinomial Models of Count Data
The Methodology of Necessary Conditions
The Logical Structure of Analytic Induction
Science Since 1500
Overvoting and representation
Do Get-Out-the-Vote Calls Reduce Turnout? The Importance of Statistical Methods for Field Experiments
Translating Quantitative Methods for Qualitative Researchers
The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout
More on the Uneasy Case for Using Mill-Type Methods in Small-N Comparative Studies
Nominal, Ordinal, and Narrative Appraisal in Macrocausal Analysis
States and Social Revolutions
Two methods in search of science
| Unique citing works | 40 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,91 |
| Citation span | 1982 - 2025 (44) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 39 |