History and Primary
The Obama Reelection
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6096700 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Helmut Norpoth (0000-0001-5278-9953, Stony Brook University, corresponding author), Michael Bednarczuk (0000-0002-6871-868X, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee) |
| Year | 2012 |
| Volume | 45 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 614-617 |
| Publication date | 2012-10-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | PS Political Science & Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1049-0965 • E-ISSN: 1537-5935 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s1049096512000868 |
| OpenAlex | W2120532648 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 5 |
| References cited | 4 |
Democrat Barack Obama is going to defeat Republican Mitt Romney by a comfortable margin in the 2012 presidential election. This forecast comes from a statistical model that uses the primary performance of the candidates and a cycle in presidential elections to predict the presidential vote. In plain English, Obama has history on his side as well as the fact that he was unchallenged in the primaries. The model, called The Primary Model because of its heavy reliance on primaries, covers elections from 1912, the beginning of presidential primaries. Since 1952, however, only the New Hampshire Primary is used; we justify the choice of New Hampshire at some length
General election · Political science · Politics · Presidential election · Presidential system · Primary election · Victory · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law
| Citations per year | 0.38 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2013 - 2015 (3) |
| Highly cited | No |