Is Clinton Doomed? An Early Forecast for 1996
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6099583 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Helmut Norpoth (0000-0001-5278-9953, State University of New York, corresponding author) |
| Year | 1995 |
| Volume | 28 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 201-207 |
| Publication date | 1995-06-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | PS Political Science & Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1049-0965 • E-ISSN: 1537-5935 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.2307/420346 |
| OpenAlex | W4230262415 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 6 |
| References cited | 16 |
Forecasting elections may be impossible, but no more so than resisting the temptation to try. As citizens following a campaign, we all indulge in private guesses about who is going to win electoral contests. Some go further and engage in illegal acts—unless done through the services of the Iowa Electronic Market—and bet money on election outcomes. Numerous political scientists have invited fame, but also ridicule, by designing sophisticated models to forecast elections; readers of PS are no strangers to those efforts. Students of elections can hardly escape this tempting opportunity any more than they can escape elections themselves. No phenomenon in our discipline comes in such a regular, precise, and verifiable form as an election. As Republican hopefuls announce bids to run for president in 1996, while Bill Clinton is pondering his strategy for reelection, political scientists resume their tinkering with models to predict the outcome of the 1996 presidential election. Those forecasts, however, will not arrive until two or three months before election day, when the most up-to-date readings for the various predictors are available. Some would argue that such early forecasting is presumptuous any-how, since it ignores the whole general election campaign. Others will complain that those forecasts arrive too late to have more than curiosity value
Curiosity · Economics · General election · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Presidential election · Presidential system · Public relations · Temptation · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Law · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact · Psychology · Social Psychology
Elections and the political order
Forecasting Presidential Elections
Political Control of the Economy
Economics and the 1999 elections
Polls
Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964
On the Demand for Economic Outcomes
A Theory of Critical Elections
Economics, politics, and the cycle of presidential popularity
Economic Conditions and the Presidential Vote
The Simple Act of Voting
Promise and Performance
| Citations per year | 0.2 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 1996 - 2025 (30) |
| Highly cited | No |