A Thermostatic Model of Congressional Elections
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6179904 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Matt Grossmann (0000-0001-5573-5993, Michigan State University, corresponding author), Christopher Wlezien (0000-0002-0719-697X, The University of Texas at Austin) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 52 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 355-366 |
| Publication date | 2024-07-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Politics Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1532-673X • E-ISSN: 1552-3373 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/1532673x241253813 |
| OpenAlex | W4398211497 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 4 |
| References cited | 26 |
Are policymakers rewarded in elections when they succeed in moving public policy in their ideological direction? Or do they face a thermostatic backlash, as citizens judge their policy moves as too hot or too cold? Our analysis of Congressional election outcomes since 1948 adds information on Congressional policy actions to traditional election models emphasizing the surge and decline of presidential support and referendums based on presidential approval and the economy. We find that the electorate reacts to the ideological direction of policy, voting against parties that push policy further to the left or the right in both midterm and presidential years. Even after accounting for policy and traditional explanations, however, there remains a large midterm penalty for the president’s party
Economics · Law and economics · Political economy · Political science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Game Theory and Applications · Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence · Public Administration
Elections and the political order
Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy
The Timeline of Presidential Elections
Combative Politics
Democracy for Realists
Interpreting U. S. Congressional Elections
Uncontested Seats and Electoral Competition for the U.S. House of Representatives Over Time
Policy (Mis) Representation and the Cost of Ruling
The Puzzle of Midterm Loss
Balancing, Generic Polls and Midterm Congressional Elections
The Presidential Surge and its Midterm Decline in Congressional Elections, 1868-1988
Incongruent Voting or Symbolic Representation? Asymmetrical Representation in Congress, 2008–2014
The Public as Thermostat
Polarization and the Decline of the American Floating Voter
One Vote Out of Step? The Effects of Salient Roll Call Votes in the 2010 Election
An Improved Model for Predicting Presidential Election Outcomes
Thermostatic Voting
The Thermostatic Model of Responsiveness in the American States
Changing votes or changing voters? How candidates and election context swing voters and mobilize the base
The 2022 Elections
Moderates
Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections
Who Punishes Extremist Nominees? Candidate Ideology and Turning Out the Base in US Elections
| Unique citing works | 4 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 4 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2026 (2) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 4 |