One Vote Out of Step? The Effects of Salient Roll Call Votes in the 2010 Election
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6180147 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Brendan Nyhan (0000-0001-7497-1799, Dartmouth College), Eric Mcghee (0000-0003-4524-9865, Public Policy Institute of California), Josh Sides (0000-0003-1268-6612, George Washington University), John Sides, Seth Masket (0000-0002-7835-0946, University of Denver), Steven Greene (0000-0003-2569-5307, North Carolina State University) |
| Year | 2012 |
| Volume | 40 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 844-879 |
| Publication date | 2012-09-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Politics Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1532-673X • E-ISSN: 1552-3373 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/1532673x11433768 |
| OpenAlex | W2169744423 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 73 |
| References cited | 35 |
We investigate the relationship between controversial roll call votes and support for Democratic incumbents in the 2010 midterm elections. Consistent with previous analyses, we find that supporters of health care reform paid a significant price at the polls. We go beyond these analyses by identifying a mechanism for this apparent effect: constituents perceived incumbents who supported health care reform as more ideologically distant (in this case, more liberal), which in turn was associated with lower support for those incumbents. Our analyses show that this perceived ideological difference mediates most of the apparent impact of support for health care reform on both individual-level vote choice and aggregate-level vote share. We conclude by simulating counterfactuals that suggest health care reform may have cost Democrats their House majority
Contingent vote · Counterfactual conditional · Democracy · Demographic economics · Economics · Group voting ticket · Health care · Health care reform · Health insurance · Health reform · Ideology · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Public economics · Salient · Voting · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Gender Politics and Representation · Law · Political and Economic history of UK and US · Psychology · Public Administration · Social Psychology · Health Policy
Rookie Mistakes
District Voter Turnout and Dyadic Representation in Congress
Conspiracy Theories and the People Who Believe Them
Red Fighting Blue
Is health politically irrelevant? Experimental evidence during a global pandemic
Lights, Camera, Inaction? The Effects of Gavel-to-Gavel Floor Coverage on U.S. State Legislatures
Obama, race, and the Republican landslide in 2010
Motions to instruct conferees as a majoritarian tool in the U.S. house
Which Candidates Can Be Mavericks? The Effects of Issue Disagreement and Gender on Candidate Evaluations
Gendered Perceptions and Reelection Incentives in the U.S. House of Representatives
Out of Step and Still in Congress? Electoral Consequences of Incumbent and Challenger Positioning Across Time
Sobering up after “Partisan Intoxication or Policy Voting?”
Better Know a District
Still the Same? Revealed Preferences and Ideological Self-Perception Among Former Members of Congress
Do candidates’ policy positions matter in regional elections? Evidence from the 2021 elections to the Welsh Senedd
Anti-war or alliance? roll-call votes of the National Assembly of the Republic of Korea on war issues (2003–2007)
The Causal Effects of a Trump Endorsement on Voter Preferences in a General Election Scenario
Mercy and Malice
Four Suggestions for Making Election Forecasts Better, and Better Known
Investigating women's greater support of the Affordable Care Act
Health system changes under pay-for-performance
The conditioning role of polarization in U.S. senate election outcomes
A Majority is the Best Repartee”
Anatomie d’un tsunami
Does the Ideological Proximity Between Candidates and Voters Affect Voting in U.S. House Elections
Issue Accountability in U.S. House Elections
Narrowcasting the Obama Presidency
National Policies, Agendas, and Polarization in American State Legislatures
Policy Effects, Partisanship, and Elections
Mediating the Electoral Connection
Feigning Politicians
Ambiguous Rhetoric and Legislative Accountability
Ideology, Party, and Opinion
Extremely High Quality
The Evaluation of the District Legislators’ Performance Affects Citizens’ Satisfaction with Democracy
Does Issue Alignment Matter? The Electoral Cost and Reward of Agricultural Representation in Urban and Rural Areas
The Supreme Court as an electoral issue
The effects of party labels on vote choice with realistic candidate differentiation
Sub-constituencies and Legislative Responsiveness
Partisanship and Perceptions of Party-Line Voting in Congress
Does It Really Hurt to Be Out of Step
What Gets Rewarded? Legislative Activity and Constituency Approval
Blame, Responsibility, and the Tea Party in the 2010 Midterm Elections
Durable Democracy? Economic Inequality and Democratic Accountability in the New Gilded Age
The Electoral Consequences of Roll Call Voting
Exploiting a Major Blunder to Study Policy Accountability
Effects of electoral margins on party loyalty in the roll call votes
Time-dependent legislative behavior and election outcomes
Perceptions of the heterogeneity of party elites in the United States
Majority Party Agenda Setting
Out‐of‐District Donors and Representation in the US House
Yea or Nay
A God of Vengeance and of Reward? Voters and Accountability
Accountability, analysis and avoidance
Do politicians anticipate voter control? A comparative study of representatives’ accountability beliefs
Legislators’ accountability for issue stances
Testing Causal Theories with Learned Proxies
Congressional Representation
The Influence of News Media on Political Elites
Using Bayesian Aldrich‐McKelvey Scaling to Study Citizens' Ideological Preferences and Perceptions
Getting “Primaried” in the Senate
The Collective “Congress” on the Ballot? A Voter and Aggregate-Level Analysis of Collective Responsibility in Congressional Elections
Incivility in Congressional Tweets
A Thermostatic Model of Congressional Elections
Citizen Support for Domestic Drone Use and Regulation
Inferences Made Easy
An Absence of Malice
Medicare for All, Some, or None? Testing the Effects of Ambiguity in the Context of the 2020 Presidential Election
The Blue Wave
Political Effects of the Great Recession
Is opinion-policy congruence rewarded at the ballot box
Members of Parliament are Minimally Accountable for Their Issue Stances (and They Know It)
Electoral Accountability for State Legislative Roll Calls and Ideological Representation
Unsafe at any margin
Advances in Social Science Research Using R
Congressmen's Voting Decisions
No Middle Ground
Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models
Legislative Leviathan
Multivariate and Propensity Score Matching Software with Automated Balance Optimization
Identification, Inference and Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Mediation Effects
Causal Mediation Analysis Using R
Mediation
A general approach to causal mediation analysis.
A general multilevel SEM framework for assessing multilevel mediation.
Facing the Challenge of Democracy
Advertising Trends in 2010
Healthcare Reform
Congress, The Electoral Connection
Congress
Strategic Politicians and the Dynamics of U.S. House Elections, 1946–86
Constituents’ Responses to Congressional Roll‐Call Voting
Bayesian Model Averaging
Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Reducing Model Dependence in Parametric Causal Inference
Issue Accountability and the Mass Public
How Should We Estimate Public Opinion in The States
The Electoral Costs of Party Loyalty in Congress
Yes, but what’s the mechanism? (don’t expect an easy answer)
The 2010 Elections
The Republican Resurgence in 2010
Leapfrog Representation and Extremism
The Electoral Impact of Congressional Roll Call Voting
Candidates and Parties in Congressional Elections
Out of Step, Out of Office
| Unique citing works | 73 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 5,21 |
| Citation span | 2012 - 2025 (14) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 71 |