A Bottom‐Up Theory of Public Opinion about Foreign Policy
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6229495 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Joshua D Kertzer (0000-0002-7358-0638, Harvard University), Thomas Zeitzoff (0000-0003-4889-7198, American University) |
| Year | 2017 |
| Volume | 61 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 543-558 |
| Publication date | 2017-07-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0092-5853 • E-ISSN: 1540-5907 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/ajps.12314 |
| OpenAlex | W2622163922 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 234 |
| References cited | 103 |
If public opinion about foreign policy is such an elite‐driven process, why does the public often disagree with what elites have to say? We argue here that elite cue‐taking models in International Relations are both overly pessimistic and unnecessarily restrictive. Members of the public may lack information about the world around them, but they do not lack principles, and information need not only cascade from the top down. We present the results from five survey experiments where we show that cues from social peers are at least as strong as those from political elites. Our theory and results build on a growing number of findings that individuals are embedded in a social context that combines with their general orientations toward foreign policy in shaping responses toward the world around them. Thus, we suggest the public is perhaps better equipped for espousing judgments in foreign affairs than many of our top‐down models claim
Context (archaeology · Economics · Elite · Epistemology · Foreign policy · Pessimism · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Public opinion · Public policy · Sociology · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Social and Intergroup Psychology · Social Media and Politics
Deafening Whisper
No Time to Explain
Return to Sender
Individual Psychology and Grand StrategyRomancing the State
Delusions and Grandeur
Missing in Faction
That Fair and Warlike Form
Dangerous Instrument
Making the World Safe for Dictatorship
Social Media and International Relations
Christian Zionism in the Twenty-First Century
Social Cues
Bipartisanship and US Foreign Policy
Is There a Partisan Divide in Citizens’ Preferences on Ukraine Support? Survey-Experimental Evidence from the US
Does Public Diplomacy Sway Domestic Public Opinion? Presidential Travel Abroad and Approval at Home
Public opinion and international organizations
Does White identity stop at the water's edge? White solidarity and racialized perceptions of foreign adversaries in the United States
Fact or fear? Elite and public opinion on the misuse of foreign aid
Digital Shift in Swiss Media Consumption Practices
Just War and Just Battle
Large-scale quantitative evidence of media impact on public opinion toward China
What Made South Korea–Japan Security Cooperation Retreat During the Moon Jae-in Administration
Manipulating the masses? Right‐wing populist messages, political ideology, and public support for multilateral development aid in Germany, the United States, and the United Kingdom
Linking Public Opinion and Foreign Policy in Russia
Beyond courts
Citizens' Preferences for Narrow and Broad Security Threats
Examining the Philippines’ infrastructure and connectivity cooperation with China and the European Union
Can Information Change Public Support for Aid
The Politics of Restraint in the Middle East
Drones and Support for the Use of Force
Ballots and Beliefs
Mass attitudes towards Russia’s aggression against Ukraine
Who fears which great power? Symmetric and asymmetric threat perceptions in East Asia
The gendered politics of wartime assistance
Tweets to the Streets? Effects of a Leader’s Social Media Messaging on Nationalist Mobilization
Between reality and perception
Colombian Foreign Policy and Public Opinion in Electoral Campaigns
Questioning More
El “caso Honecker”. 1991-1992
The East Is Red…Again! How the Specters of Communism and Russia Shape Central and Eastern European Views of China
A Will to Win
The role of societal cues in explaining attitudes toward international organizations
China’s soft power and US public opinion
Methodological Problems of Using Arabic-Language Twitter as a Gauge for Arab Attitudes Toward Politics and Society
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Is high-intensity conflict escalation inevitable in the future? A two-level game analysis on the causes of US-Iran risky rivalry
Towards Explaining Varying Degrees of Politicization of EU Trade Agreement Negotiations
Politicisation ‘Reversed’
The Multisided Threat to Free Trade
Environmental Nonprofit Organizations and Public Opinion on Global Warming
Parvenir à une victoire marginale
Managing a Marginal Victory
The public and the assembly
A-Bomb for the People? When Leaders Cue the Public in Nuclear Decision-Making
The Microfoundations of State Cybersecurity
New Questions for an Old Alliance
Israeli Public Opinion on the Use of Nuclear Weapons
National Insecurity
Audience costs in the eyes of an adversary
Secessionist social services reduce the public costs of civilian killings
Rebel tactics and external public opinion
Exploring the effects of polls on public opinion
Donetsk don’t tell – ‘hybrid war’ in Ukraine and the limits of social media influence operations
Poliheuristic Theory and Indonesia’s Absence in Deep-Sea Mining (DSM)
Unpacking “the West”
When enough is enough
Intersections of Isis media leader loss and media campaign strategy
Multilateralism and the Use of Force
Ideology and the Red Button
Do Parties Matter? Party Positions and European Voters’ Attitudes toward Economic and Political Globalization
Weathering the Storm
The Party Politics of Military Intervention in Australia and Executive Prerogatives
Engaging with Public Opinion at the Micro-Level
Trickle Down Soft Power
US Diplomatic Visits and Allies’ Military Spending
Do Americans Support War Crimes Prosecutions
Determining Support for Humanitarian Interventions
Degrees of Rivalry
Offending the audience
Democratic Ties That Bind? US–China Conflict and Foreign Policy Opinion in Japan and Korea
Taking the lead? Transatlantic attitudes towards lethal drone strikes
The sense of nations for cooperation. How threat perception and ideology influence counterterrorism cooperation between EU members
The gender gap in support for humanitarian interventions
Crossing currents
Can Taiwan survive partisanship? Evidence from two survey experiments
Nato after the invasion of Ukraine
Polarization, casualty sensitivity, and military operations
Polarization and US foreign policy
Enforcement of international human rights law
The enemy behind the scenes
Chips and democracy
The End of Austerity as Common Sense? An Experimental Analysis of Public Opinion Shifts and Class Dynamics During the Covid-19 Crisis
Does plausible deniability work? Assessing the effectiveness of unclaimed coercive acts in the Ukraine war
Allies and partners
Why language matters
Russian roulette revisited
The Effects of Foreign Elite Cues from a Dominant Neighboring Country
Attention beyond the battlefield
Punishment and blame
Public perceptions of the European power hierarchy and support for a single European security and defense policy
Group Behavior and Performance
The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion
The Social Citizen
In Time of War
Paying the Human Costs of War
The Rational Public
Impersonal Influence
Securing Approval
Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy, Revised Edition
Selective Exposure in the Age of Social Media
Are Needs to Manage Uncertainty and Threat Associated With Political Conservatism or Ideological Extremity?
The Persuasiveness of Source Credibility
The American people and foreign policy
Obedience to authority
On Deaf Ears
The Foreign Policy Disconnect
Politics Among Nations
The pull of the group
Effects of Fear and Anger on Perceived Risks of Terrorism
Are public opinion polls self-fulfilling prophecies
Anchoring the experts
Interpersonal Discussions and Attitude Formation on Foreign Policy
Elite Consensus as a Determinant of Alliance Cohesion
Broadening the Debate about War
Microfoundations in international relations
Support for torture over time
The Center Still Holds
Victory Has Many Friends
Democratic Politics and Survey Research
The malleable influence of social consensus on attitude certainty
Crossing the Water's Edge
Whose Views Made the News? Media Coverage and the March to War in Iraq
Assessing the President
The Oprah Factor
Leading the Charge
A Unified Theory of Value-Based Reasoning and U.S. Public Opinion
The Influence of Foreign Voices on U.S. Public Opinion
Assuming the Costs of War
Moral Support
Making Sense of Isolationism
When Backing Down Is the Right Decision
On the Limits of Framing Effects
The Myth of the Elite Cue
Public Opinion on Foreign Policy
Anger, Exposure to Violence, and Intragroup Conflict
Bringing the Group Back Into Political Psychology
Shot by the Messenger
Birds of the Same Feather Tweet Together
Looking for Audience Costs
Hierarchy and Community at Home and Abroad
Performing on Cue? The Formation of Public Opinion Toward War
The Three-Headed Eagle
The Pretty Prudent Public
Let’s Get a Second Opinion
Mapping the Boundaries of Elite Cues
Taking Foreign Policy Personally
The Intertemporal Tradeoff in Mobilizing Support for War
Folk Realism
Public Opinion and Foreign Policy
Reality Asserts Itself
Hypothesis Testing and Multiplicative Interaction Terms
Coercion Through IOs
Common-sense Constructivism and Hegemony in World Politics
Securitization, Social Identity, and Democratic Security
International Law and Public Attitudes Toward Torture
The Politics of Risking Peace
Losing Face and Sinking Costs
The Benefit of the Doubt
Who’s Cueing Whom
Give Me Attitudes
Framing and Deliberation
Partisanship in a Social Setting
The Public's Increasing Punitiveness and Its Influence on Mass Incarceration in the United States
Informing the Electorate? How Party Cues and Policy Information Affect Public Opinion about Initiatives
Striking a Responsive Chord
Social Capital and the Dynamics of Trust in Government
The Political Costs of Crisis Bargaining
Decomposing Audience Costs
Attitudes in the Social Context
War and the Inner Circle
International Norms and Domestic Politics
Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations
Online Fragmentation in Wartime
Public Opinion and Foreign Policy
Political Preference Formation
Essays in the Public Philosophy
Choice Shift and Group Polarization
How we know-and sometimes misjudge-what others know
The group polarization phenomenon
Using social media to measure foreign policy dynamics
Trends in Popular Support for the Wars in Korea and Vietnam
How are Foreign Policy Attitudes Structured? A Hierarchical Model
The Multiple Effects of Casualties on Public Support for War
Foreign Affairs and Issue Voting
Elite Influence on Public Opinion in an Informed Electorate
Mass Public Decisions on Go to War
Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes
How the Chinese Government Fabricates Social Media Posts for Strategic Distraction, Not Engaged Argument
Elite Military Cues and Public Opinion About the Use of Military Force
Birds of a Feather
| Unique citing works | 234 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 29,25 |
| Citation span | 2018 - 2026 (9) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 234 |