Skip to main content

ETHNOS_APP

Home • Search • Journals • List 0

Intervention and Democracy

Bibliographic Data

ID6271979
AuthorsBruce Bueno De Mesquita (0000-0001-8582-8330, Hoover Institution), George W Downs (New York University)
Year2006
Volume60
Issue03
Publication date2006-07-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueInternational Organization (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0020-8183 • E-ISSN: 1531-5088
PublisherCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1017/s0020818306060206
OpenAlexW2113337101
LanguageEN
Citations received89
References cited18

Recent events have raised questions about the extent to which military intervention promotes democracy and the degree to which this depends on the nature of the intervener. We argue that traction on these issues is best obtained by focusing on the policies of the target state that have the greatest implications for the political survival of the intervening state's leader and the kind of governmental institutions in the target state that are most likely to produce them. This perspective generally—although not always—predicts that third-party military intervention in civil wars, other intra- or interstate disputes and wars will lead to little if any improvement, and all too often erosion in the trajectory of democratic development. Three hypotheses on the impact of third-party intervention by democracies, autocracies, and the United Nations are then tested and strongly supported against a counterfactual expectation of what the democratic trajectory would have been in the absence of intervention.We benefited greatly from the wise counsel of Feryal Cherif, Michael Gilligan, Shanker Satyanath, and Alastair Smith, each of whom read or discussed in depth earlier versions of this study. Patrick Regan was also extremely helpful in providing data and guidance in the use of the data on interventions that he has made available. The study was significantly improved by the insightful advice of the anonymous reviewers (we wish we could thank them by name) and by Lisa Martin's able and thoughtful guidance. Authors often complain about referees; we have nothing but praise for the contributions they made. Of course, we alone are responsible for any errors and for all remaining shortcomings in this investigation

Autocracy · Counterfactual thinking · Democracy · Intervention (counseling · Law and economics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Praise · Psychological intervention · Sociology · State (computer science · Global Peace and Security Dynamics · International Development and Aid · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Psychology · Public Administration · Social Psychology

  • Onset of new business? Private military and security companies and conflict onset in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia from 1990 to 2011

    Ulrich Petersohn•Small Wars and Insurgencies•2021

  • The Ideology of Failed States

    Open Access•Susan L Woodward•Ideology of Failed States•2017

  • Intervention and Regime Change

    Open Access•John M Owens, John M Owen et al.•Emerging Trends in the Social and…•2015

  • Seguridad internacional

    Open Access•Farid Kahhat•Seguridad internacional•2019

  • The End of Ambition

    Steven A Cook•End of Ambition•2024

  • United Nations Peacekeeping and the Politics of Authoritarianism

    Open Access•Sarah Von Billerbeck, Birte Julia Gippert et al.•United Nations Peacekeeping and…•2025

  • Nils Petter Gleditsch

    Open Access•Nils Petter Gleditsch•Nils Petter Gleditsch•2015

  • Tip-toeing through the Tulips with Congress

    Open Access•Dani K Nedal, Madison V Schramm•Tip-Toeing Through the Tulips…•2025

  • Changing state structures

    Open Access•Stephen D Krasner•Proceedings of the National…•2011

  • Conditions of External Military Interventions in African Internal Conflicts

    Open Access•Martin Schmiedl, Jan Prouza•Central European Journal of…•2021

  • A Demand-side Explanation of Offshore Autocratic Assistance

    Open Access•Diego Telias, Luciano Quispe et al.•The International Spectator•2026

  • The consequences of CIA-sponsored regime change in Latin America

    Open Access•Samuel Absher, Robin Grier et al.•European Journal of Political…•2023

  • The Meddling American Voter? How Norms, Interests, and Great Power Rivalries Affect U.S. Public Support for Partisan Electoral Interventions Abroad

    Open Access•Dov H Levin, Paul Musgrave•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2023

  • The Death and Life of State Repression

    Christian Davenport, Benjamin J Appel et al.•Death and Life of State Repression•2022

  • From War to Democracy

    Open Access•Anna Jarstad, Anna K Jarstad et al.•From War to Democracy•2001

  • Networked Governance of Freedom and Tyranny

    John Braithwaite, Hilary Charlesworth et al.•Networked Governance of Freedom…•2012

  • Democratic Jihad ? Military Intervention And Democracy

    Nils Petter Gleditsch, Lene Siljeholm Christiansen et al.•2007

  • Determinants of Democratization

    Open Access•Jan Teorell•Determinants of Democratization•2010

  • Third-party regime type and civil war duration

    Open Access•Sara Norrevik, Mehwish Sarwari•Journal of Peace Research•2021

  • Foreign military intervention and women's rights

    Open Access•Dursun Peksen•Journal of Peace Research•2011

  • With friends like these, who needs democracy? The effect of transnational support from rivals on post-conflict democratization

    Open Access•Michael Colaresi•Journal of Peace Research•2014

  • Refugee flows and state contributions to post-Cold War UN peacekeeping missions

    Open Access•Gary Uzonyi•Journal of Peace Research•2015

  • Introducing the Historical Varieties of Democracy dataset

    Open Access•Carl Henrik Knutsen, Jan Teorell et al.•Journal of Peace Research•2019

  • Domestic elites and external actors in post-conflict democratisation

    Sonja Grimm, Brigitte Weiffen•Conflict Security and Development•2018

  • A theory of democratisation through peace-building

    Christoph Zürcher•Conflict Security and Development•2018

  • Democracy, War and Expansion through Historical Lenses

    Open Access•Bruce Russett, Bruce M Russett•European Journal of International…•2009

  • The state of democracy and human rights in the Arab ummah (nation)

    Isma‘il al-Shatti•Contemporary Arab Affairs•2016

  • Don't Mention the War versus Escalating Commitment

    Open Access•Dieuwertje Kuijpers, G Schumacher•Foreign Policy Analysis•2020

  • The Effects of Autocratic Characteristics on Public Opinion toward Democracy Promotion Policies

    Open Access•Abel Escribà‐folch, Lala Muradova et al.•Foreign Policy Analysis•2020

  • Imposing Democracy to Ensure the Peace

    Open Access•Paul Fritz•Foreign Policy Analysis•2014

  • United Nations Peacekeeping, Democratic Process, and the Durability of Peace after Civil Wars

    Open Access•Madhav Joshi•International Studies Perspectives•2012

  • Interventions into Civil Wars

    Patrick M Regan•Civil Wars•2010

  • Do Democracies Support Violent Non-governmental Organizations Less Than Autocracies Do

    Shlomo Ogen Goldman, Ogen Goldman•Civil Wars•2016

  • Post-Conflict Regimes and the Survival of Pro-Government Militias

    Open Access•Minnie M Joo, Brandon Bolte•Civil Wars•2025

  • Transition from Civil War to Peace

    Ayokunu Adedokun•Peace and Conflict Studies•2019

  • Towards a theory of external democracy promotion

    Open Access•Jonas Wolff, Iris Wurm•Security Dialogue•2011

  • Too good to be true? United Nations peacebuilding and the democratization of war-torn states

    Open Access•Janina Isabel Steinert, Sonja Grimm•Conflict Management and Peace…•2014

  • United Nations peacekeeping personnel commitments, 1990–2011

    Open Access•Jacob D Kathman•Conflict Management and Peace…•2013

  • Foreign military intervention and post-colonial state-building

    Open Access•Jeffrey Pickering, Emizet F Kisangani•Conflict Management and Peace…•2013

  • If we cooperate together, we intervene together

    Open Access•Sara Norrevik, Mehwish Sarwari•Conflict Management and Peace…•2024

  • Promoting Democracy in Fragile States

    Open Access•Eric Mvukiyehe, Cyrus Samii•World Development•2017

  • United Nations peacekeeping operations and multilateral foreign aid

    Open Access•Wakako Maekawa•World Development•2024

  • When aid builds states

    Louis-Alexandre Berg, Naomi Levy•International Interactions•2020

  • State intervention, external spoilers, and the durability of peace agreements

    Sema Hande Ogutcu-Fu•International Interactions•2021

  • The Durability of Imposed Democracy

    J Michael Greig, Andrew J Enterline•International Interactions•2014

  • Power in Democracy Promotion

    Open Access•Jonas Wolff•Alternatives Global Local Political•2015

  • Making the World Safe for Partial Democracy? Questioning the Premises of Democracy Promotion

    Arthur A Goldsmith•International Security•2008

  • You Can't Always Get What You Want

    Alexander B Downes, Lindsey A O'Rourke et al.•International Security•2016

  • Transformative Choices

    Elizabeth N Saunders•International Security•2009

  • Forced to Be Free

    Alexander B Downes, Jonathan Monten•International Security•2013

  • The Myth of Military Myopia

    Jonathan D Caverley•International Security•2010

  • Covert regime change and ideology

    Open Access•Joshua Ammons, Shishir Shakya et al.•Public Choice•2026

  • How United Nations peace operations can help overcome perils to post-conflict elections

    Open Access•Barış Arı, Theodora-Ismene Gizelis et al.•Journal of Peace Research•2025

  • Reaping what was sown

    Open Access•Marcus Nilsson•Cooperation and Conflict•2012

  • Biometric voter registration

    Open Access•Katja Lindskov Jacobsen•Cooperation and Conflict•2019

  • The Effects of U.S. Foreign Assistance on Democracy Building, 1990–2003

    Open Access•Steven E Finkel, Aníbal Pérez-Liñán et al.•World Politics•2007

  • With or Without Force? E uropean Public Opinion on Democracy Promotion

    Open Access•Jörg Faust, Maria Melody Garcia•JCMS Journal of Common Market…•2014

  • From Shocks to Waves

    Open Access•Seva Gunitsky•International Organization•2014

  • Does Foreign Military Intervention Help Human Rights

    Open Access•Dursun Peksen•Political Research Quarterly•2012

  • The Determinants of US Public Opinion Towards Democracy Promotion

    Open Access•Dawn Brancati•Political Behavior•2014

  • External Supporters and Negotiated Settlement

    Open Access•Wakako Maekawa•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2019

  • A Vote for Freedom? The Effects of Partisan Electoral Interventions on Regime Type

    Open Access•Dov H Levin•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2019

  • The Patron’s Dilemma

    Open Access•Michael K Mckoy, Michael Mckoy et al.•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2012

  • Expecting Elections

    Open Access•Nils W Metternich•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2011

  • Promoting Political Participation in War-torn Countries

    Open Access•Eric Mvukiyehe•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2018

  • Third-party Intervention in Civil Wars and the Prospects for Postwar Development

    Open Access•Sang Ki Kim•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2017

  • Sanctions and Preventive War

    Open Access•Daniel Mccormack, Henry Pascoe•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2017

  • Democratic versus Authoritarian Coups

    Open Access•Clayton L Thyne, Kendall Hitch•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2020

  • Political Succession

    Open Access•Bruce Bueno De Mesquita, Alastair Smith•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2017

  • Political Groups, Leader Change, and the Pattern of International Cooperation

    Open Access•Alastair Smith•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2009

  • When the Great Power Gets a Vote

    Dov H Levin•International Studies Quarterly•2016

  • The Liberal Moment Fifteen Years On1

    Open Access•Nils Petter Gleditsch•International Studies Quarterly•2008

  • To Intervene or Not to Intervene? Democratic Constraints on Third-Party Support in Civil Wars

    Open Access•Casper Sakstrup, Jakob Tolstrup•Government and Opposition•2022

  • Introduction

    Annika Elena Poppe, Julia Leininger et al.•Democratization•2019

  • Is successful democracy promotion possible? The conceptual problem

    Hans Agné•Democratization•2014

  • Coerced transitions in Timor-Leste and Kosovo

    Nicolas Lemay-Hébert•Democratization•2012

  • Rethinking Foreign Military Interventions to Promote Human Rights

    Open Access•Mohammed Nuruzzaman•Canadian Journal of Political…•2015

  • Pitfalls and Prospects in the Peacekeeping Literature

    Virginia Page Fortna, Lise M Howard•Annual Review of Political Science•2008

  • Improving Governance from the Outside In

    Stephen D Krasner, Jeremy M Weinstein•Annual Review of Political Science•2014

  • Domestic Explanations of International Relations

    Bruce Bueno De Mesquita, Alastair Smith•Annual Review of Political Science•2012

  • Uncertain times

    Open Access•Kevin Grier, Robin Grier et al.•American Journal of Political…•2025

  • How Democratic Alliances Solve the Power Parity Problem

    Open Access•Jon M Conrad, Justin Conrad•British Journal of Political…•2017

  • Foreign-Imposed Regime Change, State Power and Civil War Onset, 1920–2004

    Open Access•Goran Peic, Dan Reiter•British Journal of Political…•2011

  • No Business Like Firc Business

    Open Access•Paul Zachary, Kathleen Deloughery et al.•British Journal of Political…•2017

  • Evaluating the effect of military intervention on rebel governance in terms of disaggregated human security

    Koki Shigenoi, Wakako Maekawa•Small Wars and Insurgencies•2022

  • Game Theory, Political Economy, and the Evolving Study of War and Peace

    Open Access•Bruce Bueno De Mesquita•American Political Science Review•2006

  • UN Peacekeeping and Democratization in Conflict-Affected Countries

    Open Access•Robert A Blair, Jessica Di Salvatore et al.•American Political Science Review•2023

  • Who Keeps International Commitments and Why? The International Criminal Court and Bilateral Nonsurrender Agreements

    Open Access•Judith G Kelley, Judith Kelley•American Political Science Review•2007

  • Autocratic Stability in the Shadow of Foreign Threats

    Open Access•Livio Di Lonardo, Jessica S Sun et al.•American Political Science Review•2020

  • Civil Wars and Foreign Powers

    Patrick M Regan, Patrick Regan•Civil Wars and Foreign Powers•2000

  • Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?

    Open Access•Alberto Alesina, David Dollar•Journal of Economic Growth•2000

  • The Limits of International Law

    Jack L Goldsmith, Eric A Posner•The Limits of International Law•2005

  • Capitalist Development and Democracy

    Iván Llamazares Valduvieco•Sociological Worlds•2013

  • The Logic of Political Survival

    Bruce Bueno De Mesquita, Alastair Smith et al.•The logic of political survival•2003

  • Where Do the Peacekeepers Go?1

    Open Access•Michael J Gilligan, Michael Gilligan et al.•International Studies Review•2003

  • The U.S. use of military intervention to promote democracy

    Margaret G Hermann, Charles W Kegley•International Interactions•1998

  • Democracy, War, and Covert Action

    Open Access•David P Forsythe•Journal of Peace Research•1992

  • Resisting the Lonely Superpower

    Erik Voeten•The Journal of Politics•2004

  • Interstate Peacekeeping

    Open Access•Virginia Page Fortna•World Politics•2004

  • Beacons of Hope? The Impact of Imposed Democracy on Regional Peace, Democracy, and Prosperity

    Andrew J Enterline, J Michael Greig•The Journal of Politics•2005

  • A Theory of Post-Civil War Democratization

    Open Access•Leonard Wantchekon, Zvika Neeman•Journal of Theoretical Politics•2002

  • The Political Origins of the UN Security Council's Ability to Legitimize the Use of Force

    Erik Voeten•International Organization•2005

  • Dilemmas of Democratization in Latin America

    Terry Lynn Karl•Comparative Politics•1990

  • Putting Military Intervention into the Democratic Peace

    Open Access•Charles W Kegley, Margaret G Hermann•Comparative Political Studies•1997

  • Does Peacekeeping Keep Peace? International Intervention and the Duration of Peace After Civil War

    Open Access•Virginia Page Fortna•International Studies Quarterly•2004

  • United States Military Intervention and the Promotion of Democracy

    Open Access•James Meernik•Journal of Peace Research•1996

Unique citing works89
Citations per year3,56
Citation span2001 - 2026 (26)
Citation velocitycurrent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 88

Tools

Open DOISci-Hub
Ethnos_APP • Open Source Project • MIT License • Frontend v2.0.0 • Privacy and Cookies • API Documentation: api.ethnos.app/docs • API Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17049435 • Frontend Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17050053 • cruz.rio.br • Expectantes Misericordiae