A Cross-Cultural Exploration of the Reference Dependence of Crucial Group Decisions under Risk

Japan's 1941 Decision for War

Bibliographic Data

ID6284156
AuthorsAriel Levi (Wayne State University), Ariel S Levi (Wayne State University), Glen Whyte (University of Toronto)
Year1997
Volume41
Issue6
Pages792-813
Publication date1997-12-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022002797041006004
OpenAlexW2064429608
LanguageEN
Citations received23
References cited48

This study investigates risky group decision making in Japan from a prospect theory perspective. Hypotheses concerning the effects of the reference point on risk preferences in group decision making were tested by content analyzing transcripts of Japanese leaders' deliberations prior to their 1941 decision for war and subsequent attack on Pearl Harbor. Consistent with prospect theory, the results show systematic associations between the reference point used and the riskiness of policy recommendations. The highly risky decision for war appears to have been influenced by the group's reference point, which framed the group's alternatives as a choice between losses. The decision for war thus appears to have been motivated by a desire to avoid what were otherwise perceived as certain losses

Economics · Geography · Group (periodic table · Group Decision Making · Microeconomics · Pearl · Perspective (graphical · Point (geometry · Political science · Positive economics · Prospect theory · Computer Science · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Mathematics · Psychology · Risk Perception and Management · Social Psychology

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