The Indirect Effect of Ethnic Heterogeneity on the Likelihood of Civil War Onset

Bibliographic Data

ID6284297
AuthorsRandall J Blimes (Department of Political Science University of Colorado, Boulder, corresponding author)
Year2006
Volume50
Issue4
Pages536-547
Publication date2006-08-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/00222706289402
OpenAlexW2038154348
LanguageEN
Citations received41
References cited26

This study leverages a statistical model to answer an empirical puzzle: given that popular conventional wisdom and many theories of ethnic conflict suggest that the ethnic composition of a society should influence the probability that a country experiences civil war, why are the results of large- n studies so contradictory? The author argues that confusion over the nature of the relationship between ethnic cleavages and the likelihood of civil war onset stems from a disconnect between ethnic conflict theory and empirical testing. Most studies that test for a relationship between the level of ethnic fractionalization and civil war onset test only for a direct relationship, while theories of ethnic conflict have suggested that ethnic diversity should have an indirect effect of the likelihood of civil war onset. The author uses a heteroskedastic probit model to show that ethnic fractionalization has an indirect effect on the likelihood of civil war onset

Demographic economics · Development economics · Econometrics · Economics · Ethnic conflict · Ethnic group · Fractionalization · Political science · Probit · Probit model · Sociology · Spanish Civil War · Test (biology · Culture, Economy, and Development Studies · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East · Psychology · Social Psychology

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