Is There a War Party? Party Change, the Left–Right Divide, and International Conflict
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6285049 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Andrew Bertoli (0000-0003-0027-8435, Dartmouth College, corresponding author), Allan Dafoe (0000-0003-0377-205X, Yale University), Robert Trager (0000-0002-6201-2811, Department of Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA) |
| Year | 2019 |
| Volume | 63 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 950-975 |
| Publication date | 2019-04-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022002718772352 |
| OpenAlex | W2799771898 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 28 |
| References cited | 56 |
Are leaders from certain parties particularly likely to engage in military conflict? This question is difficult to answer because of selection bias. For example, countries may be more likely to elect right-wing leaders if their publics are more hawkish or if the international system is particularly dangerous. Put simply, who comes to power is not random, which makes causal inference difficult. We overcome this problem by using a regression discontinuity design. Specifically, we look at close presidential elections that were essentially “tossups” between two candidates. We find that electing right-wing candidates increases state aggression. We also find that electing candidates from challenger parties makes countries much more likely to initiate military disputes, particularly in the first year of the new leader’s term. This result is consistent with other studies that find that the likelihood of state aggression increases following major leadership transitions
Adversary · Aggression · Computer security · Front (military · Inference · International conflict · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Power (physics · Presidential system · Regression discontinuity design · Selection (genetic algorithm · Sociology · State (computer science · Computer Science · Culture, Economy, and Development Studies · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Psychology · Social Psychology
Collective Deterrence
Left and Right as a Narrative of the Global
Committed Moderates and Uncommitted Extremists
The Party Politics of Foreign and Security Policy
The politics of military deployments
Polarisation, accountability, and interstate conflict
Unpacking Conflict Process on the Korean Peninsula with Political and Seasonal Distribution
Seeing Like a District
Play the scramble, avoid the backlash? Partisan dynamics in the negotiation of bilateral investment treaties
When Crises Unite. Changing Party Positions on Foreign Policy During Critical Events in Germany
Between ideology and security interests
How leader's type shapes the effect of nuclear latency on dispute involvement
Presidential hawkishness, domestic popularity, and diplomatic normalization
Move First to Avoid the Worst
Beyond Power Politics
Leader Hawkishness, Political Survival, and Interstate Crises
Towards a two-dimensional analytical framework for understanding Georgian foreign policy
What’s Fair in International Politics? Equity, Equality, and Foreign Policy Attitudes
Looking Like a Winner
Are Liberal Governments More Cooperative? Voting Trends at the UN in Five Anglophone Democracies
All the World’s a Stage
Same as the Old Boss? Domestic Politics and the Turnover Trap
Studying Leaders and Elites
Hawkish Partisans
Government ideology and the implementation of civil war peace agreements
Introducing the parliamentary deployment votes database
Leader age and international conflict
A Framework for Measuring Leaders' Willingness to Use Force
The Politics of American Foreign Policy
Randomization Inference in the Regression Discontinuity Design
Randomized experiments from non-random selection in U.S. House elections
Do Parties Matter for Economic Outcomes? A Regression-Discontinuity Approach
Promoting an open research culture
Regression discontinuity inference with specification error
Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression-Discontinuity Designs
Universals in the Content and Structure of Values
Leaders at War
The MID 3 data set, 1993–2001
Leaders and International Conflict
Partisan Interventions
Peace at What Price
Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences
Nuclear Logics
Perceptions toward North Korea’s nuclear weapons program
Politically Motivated Opposition to War1
The Phantom Menace
The MID3 Data Set, 1993—2001
Hazardous Weapons? Effects of Arms Transfers and Defense Pacts on Militarized Disputes, 1950-1995
What's Stopping You
Let Us Now Praise Great Men
How and when do personal values guide our attitudes and sociality? Explaining cross-cultural variability in attitude–value linkages
Elections and the Regression Discontinuity Design
Nationalism and Conflict
Fair is Fair
Honor and War
Moral Support
Mayoral Partisanship and Municipal Fiscal Policy
Basic Personal Values, Core Political Values, and Voting
Attracting Trouble
Does Experience Matter
Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War
Leadership Turnover and Foreign Policy Change
Politics or the Economy? Domestic Correlates of Dispute Involvement in Developed Democracies
Ideological Fractionalization and the International Conflict Behavior of Parliamentary Democracies1
The Politics of Risking Peace
Oil and Revolutionary Governments
On the Validity of the Regression Discontinuity Design for Estimating Electoral Effects
When Mayors Matter
Statistical Critiques of the Democratic Peace
The Turnover Trap
Do Alliances Deter Aggression? The Influence of Military Alliances on the Initiation of Militarized Interstate Disputes
The Political Costs of Crisis Bargaining
Liberals and conservatives rely on different sets of moral foundations
Measuring change in source of leader support
MPs for Sale? Returns to Office in Postwar British Politics
War and Revenge
| Unique citing works | 28 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 4 |
| Citation span | 2019 - 2026 (8) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 28 |