Attracting Trouble

Democracy, Leadership Tenure, and the Targeting of Militarized Challenges, 1918-1992

Bibliographic Data

ID6285875
AuthorsChristopher Gelpi (0000-0002-1463-9011), Joseph M Grieco (Duke University)
Year2001
Volume45
Issue6
Pages794-817
Publication date2001-12-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022002701045006005
OpenAlexW2171807236
LanguageEN
Citations received71
References cited54

Otherwise powerful, formidable democracies are tempting targets for international violence because they have leaders who, on average, have been in office for shorter periods of time than leaders of autocracies. Domestic incentives may make resistance more costly than offering concessions for inexperienced leaders of both democratic and authoritarian states. Over time, however, resistance may become domestically less costly, causing experienced leaders to be more likely to prefer resistance. Anticipating this response, potential challengers may be more likely to target inexperienced leaders. Because democracies generally have high rates of leadership turnover, they are tempting targets for international violence. Statistical analysis of crisis initiation between 1918 and 1992 confirms the perception that democracies are more likely to be targets of militarized challenges. Results are also consistent with the proposition that the relatively short tenure in office served by democratic leaders helps to account for the observed pattern of democratic attraction of foreign challenges

Authoritarianism · Autocracy · Democracy · Development economics · Economics · Incentive · Market economy · Perception · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Proposition · Resistance (ecology · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Psychology · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence

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