Militarized Disputes, Uncertainty, and Leader Tenure
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6284184 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Barbara Clark Smith (0000-0002-7125-7220, University of Rochester, corresponding author), Bradley C Smith (University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, USA), William Spaniel (0000-0002-6733-385X, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA) |
| Year | 2019 |
| Volume | 63 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 1222-1252 |
| Publication date | 2019-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022002718789738 |
| OpenAlex | W2886064249 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 14 |
| References cited | 53 |
How do new leaders impact crisis negotiations? We argue that opposing states know less about such a leader’s resolve over the issues at stake. To fully appreciate the consequences, we develop a multi-period bargaining model of negotiations. In equilibrium, as a proposer becomes close to certain of its opponent’s type, the duration and intensity of war goes to 0. We then test whether increase in leader tenure decrease the duration of militarized interstate disputes. Our estimates indicate that crises involving new leaders are 25.3 percent more likely to last one month than crises involving leaders with four years of tenure. Moreover, such conflicts are more likely to result in higher fatality levels. These results further indicate that leader tenure is a useful proxy for uncertainty
Demographic economics · Duration (music · Economics · Negotiation · Political economy · Political science · Proxy (statistics · Defense, Military, and Policy Studies · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law · Political Conflict and Governance
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| Unique citing works | 14 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2 |
| Citation span | 2019 - 2026 (8) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 14 |