The Turnover Trap
New Leaders, Reputation, and International Conflict
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6230227 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Scott Wolford (0000-0002-5468-6699, Emory University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2007 |
| Volume | 51 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 772-788 |
| Publication date | 2007-10-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0092-5853 • E-ISSN: 1540-5907 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00280.x |
| OpenAlex | W2144298621 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 114 |
| References cited | 42 |
A formal model of crisis bargaining in the shadow of leadership turnover is analyzed where (1) successive leaders of the same state may differ in their resolve, (2) their resolve is private information, and (3) the probability of leadership turnover depends on bargaining behavior and conflict outcomes. The model provides novel answers to a number of questions about the relationship between an incumbent's time in office, the prospects of losing office, the anticipated behavior of future leaders, and the current probability of conflict. Taken together, these results add further weight to recent claims that leaders, not states, should be considered the fundamental units of analysis in international relations
Economics · International conflict · Political science · Politics · Public relations · Reputation · Shadow (psychology · State (computer science · Trap (plumbing · Computer Science · Engineering · International Development and Aid · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Psychology · Social Psychology
Collective Deterrence
Understanding the timing of Chinese border incursions into India
Leader characteristics and constitutional compliance
Leadership Turnover, Domestic Constraints, and International Conflict
The Domestic Sources of International Trust
Reexamining Reputation for Resolve
Rivalry, Uncertainty, and Militarized Compellent Threats
High valuations, uncertainty, and war
Trilateral politics in hierarchy, war, and state formation
Reassurance versus coercive bargaining
Weak sovereignty and interstate war
Bargaining over power
Domestic politics, reputational sanctions, and international compliance
Why Talk Tough? Explaining Japanese Prime Ministers’ Proactiveness in National Defense Rhetoric
Arming the new Sheriff in Town
International Treaty Ratification and Leader Turnover
Testing the Biden Hypotheses
Leadership and Military Effectiveness
Leader Turnover, Volatility, and Political Risk
A New Model of “Taboo”
Leadership Changes and Civil War Peace Agreements
Leader Tenure, Genocide, and Politicide During Civil War
Presidential political ambition and US foreign conflict behavior, 1816–2010
How mediator leadership transitions influence mediation effectiveness
Autocratic political cycle and international conflict
Precrisis military hostility and escalation in international crises
Dangerous bargains with the devil? Incorporating new approaches in peace science for the study of war
When do leader backgrounds matter? Evidence from the President’s Daily Brief
Domestic institutions, leader tenure and the duration of civil war
Introduction to special issue
Presidential hawkishness, domestic popularity, and diplomatic normalization
Some Agents are Freer than Others
The Incentives of Leaders in International Organizations
Welcome to the Jungle
Understanding the effect of madman leaders on economic sanctions
How International Reputation Matters
Signaling Resolve
Determinants of Foreign Aid
Wars of Succession
You’ve Got to Know When to Fold ‘Em
Another Skirmish in the Battle over Democracies and War
Autocratic Leaders, Combat Experience, and Interstate Conflict
Honor and Terrorism
Alliance Reliability and Dispute Escalation
When Prospective Leader Turnover Promotes Peace
Move First to Avoid the Worst
Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan? Assessing US Reputation and Deterrence across International Crises
Leader Turnover, Regime Type, and Growth Volatility
Redefining the Debate Over Reputation and Credibility in International Security
Local Politics, Global Consequences
Political Instability and the Failure of Deterrence
Leader Hawkishness, Political Survival, and Interstate Crises
How Hard to Fight? Cross-Player Effects and Strategic Sophistication in an Asymmetric Contest Experiment
We need to talk
Introduction to the special issue
Hazards or Hassles The Effect of Sanctions on Leader Survival
Is There a Trump Effect? An Experiment on Political Polarization and Audience Costs
Bargaining with a biased autocrat
War and diplomacy on the world stage
Gender, sexism, and war
Policy bargaining and militarized conflict
Even Generals Need Friends
Led Astray
Is There a War Party? Party Change, the Left–Right Divide, and International Conflict
Leaders, Advisers, and the Political Origins of Elite Support for War
Reputations and Signaling in Coercive Bargaining
Studying Leaders and Military Conflict
Slow to Learn
Militarized Disputes, Uncertainty, and Leader Tenure
Less Is More? Shifting Power and Third-Party Military Assistance
Leaders, States, and Reputations
Leader Turnover, Institutions, and Voting at the UN General Assembly
The Costs of Reneging
Provocation, Bargaining, and War
Political Groups, Leader Change, and the Pattern of International Cooperation
Coming into Money
War and the Reelection Motive
Crisis Bargaining in the Shadow of Third-Party Opportunism
Uncertainty, Salient Stakes, and the Causes of Conventional Arms Races
The New Public Address System
Entry, Vulnerability, and Trade Policy
Reputations and Change in International Relations
Keeping the Schools Open While the Troops are Away
Same as the Old Boss? Domestic Politics and the Turnover Trap
The Uncertainty Trade-off
Flexible Election Timing and International Conflict
The Determinants of Uncertainty in International Relations
Doubling Down
Sanctions, Uncertainty, and Leader Tenure
Mutual Optimism as a Cause of Conflict
The Election Effect
Revisiting Reputation
Recapturing Regime Type in International Relations
International reputation and the Voice to Parliament referendum
Elites in the Making and Breaking of Foreign Policy
Studying Leaders and Elites
Reputation and Status as Motives for War
Endogenous preferences, credible signaling, and the security dilemma
When Do Leaders Free‐Ride? Business Experience and Contributions to Collective Defense
Leader Influence and Reputation Formation in World Politics
In the Shadow of Power
War and Punishment
The Logic of Political Survival
Democratization and the Danger of War
Democratization and the Danger of War
Leadership Style and Soviet Foreign Policy
Democratic Variants and Democratic Variance
Credibility in Compliance and Punishment
Enduring Rivalries
Peace through Insecurity
Attracting Trouble
The Common Priors Assumption
Leader Age, Regime Type, and Violent International Relations
Looking for Audience Costs
Honest Threats
Guess Who Did What
Bargaining and the Nature of War
Election Cycles and War
Diversionary Incentives and the Bargaining Approach to War
Aftershocks
Rationalist explanations for war
The Politics of Risking Peace
Rationality and Psychology in International Politics
The Impact of Leadership Turnover on Trading Relations Between States
Deterrence and International Conflict
Conflict, Agency, and Gambling for Resurrection
Why Democracies May Actually Be Less Reliable Allies
A Bargaining Model of War and Peace
Capabilities, Uncertainty, and Resolve
When Doves Cry
Bargaining and Learning While Fighting
International Conflict and the Tenure of Leaders
Reputations and deterrence
War and the Survival of Political Leaders
Violent Adolescence
Avoiding Diversionary Targets
The Principle of Convergence in Wartime Negotiations
International Crises and Domestic Politics
War and the Fate of Regimes
Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick? Veterans in the Political Elite and the American Use of Force
| Unique citing works | 114 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 6,33 |
| Citation span | 2008 - 2026 (19) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 114 |