Ballistic Missiles and International Conflict

Bibliographic Data

ID6284049
AuthorsSimon A Mettler (Emory University), Dan Reiter (0000-0001-9005-224X, Emory University, corresponding author)
Year2013
Volume57
Issue5
Pages854-880
Publication date2013-10-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022002712453702
OpenAlexW2111151451
LanguageEN
Citations received19
References cited39

Governments are concerned about the dangers posed by ballistic missiles. However, there is almost no theoretical or empirical scholarship on ballistic missiles. This article presents and tests the conventional wisdom that the spread of ballistic missiles makes conflict more likely. Original data on ballistic missiles and on crisis initiation is collected, and analysis using a variety of statistical models is conducted. It is found that among all directed dyads from 1946 to 2007, potential challengers possessing ballistic missiles are significantly more likely to initiate international crises. Further, potential targets armed with ballistic missiles are significantly less likely to be challenged. Crises are less likely to escalate when targets are armed with missiles. The results are obtained after accounting for several control variables. Analysis reveals that the findings are not affected by possible endogeneity bias. The analysis also reveals complex interactive effects between ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons on the onset of international crises

Arms control · Ballistic missile · Econometrics · Economics · Endogeneity · Missile · Missile Defense · Political science · Scholarship · Aerospace Engineering · Defense, Military, and Policy Studies · Economic Sanctions and International Relations · Engineering · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law

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