Changes in Integrative Complexity Prior to Surprise Attacks
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6285698 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Peter Suedfeld (0000-0003-2563-036X), Susan Bluck (0000-0003-0499-6426, University of British Columbia) |
| Year | 1988 |
| Volume | 32 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 626-635 |
| Publication date | 1988-12-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022002788032004002 |
| OpenAlex | W2020891713 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 49 |
| References cited | 16 |
Previous archival analyses of governmental communications show a decrease in integrative complexity prior to the outbreak of war between nations. No such decrease is found when a conflict is resolved through peaceful negotiation. Integrative complexity is a structural measure, based on the source's recognition of alternative perspectives and several dimensions (differentiation), and the combination of these perspectives and dimensions in synthesized solutions (integration). The current study, using documents from nine international crises in the twentieth century that culminated in a surprise attack, found that the attackers showed a decline in complexity between three months and two to four weeks before the attack. The attacked nations increased in complexity between two to four weeks and one week, dropping to approximately the same level as the attacker on and immediately after the day of the attack. A drop in the integrative complexity of the communications issued by an opposing government thus may be one predictor of imminent strategic surprise
Computer security · Government (linguistics · Negotiation · Political science · Surprise · Computer Science · Conflict Management and Negotiation · Intelligence, Security, War Strategy · Law · Misinformation and Its Impacts · Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence · Psychology · Social Power and Status Dynamics · Social Psychology · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
Forecasting in International Relations
Is There Method in Our Madness? Ways of Assessing Cognition in International Relations
Fifty years of research on leader communication
The First Total War and the Sociotechnical Systems of Warfare
Two ways to be complex and why they matter
The role of motivation, responsibility, and integrative complexity in crisis escalation
The Cognitive Processing of Politics and Politicians
The Biological Roots of Complex Thinking
Historiometric Methods in Social Psychology
A Guide to the Literature on Aggressive Behavior
The cognitive complexity of Miss Piggy and Osama Bin Laden
Emotions expressed in speeches by leaders of ideologically motivated groups predict aggression
Text Annotation and the Cognitive Architecture of Political Leaders
The terrorist rhetorical style and its consequences for understanding terrorist violence
The hidden implications of radical group rhetoric
The language of violence
Group-level integrative complexity
Relationships between problem-solving competencies and militaristic attitudes
Pas De Trois
Madness as Strategy? Leader Reputation and the Logic of Elite Purges in Autocracies
Changes in Integrative Complexity Among Middle East Leaders During the Persian Gulf Crisis
Integrative Complexity of 41 U.S. Presidents
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The Impact of Cognitive Diversity on Crisis Negotiations
Individual Characteristics of Political Leaders and the Use of Analogy in Foreign Policy Decision Making
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Are Conservatives Really More Simple‐Minded than Liberals? The Domain Specificity of Complex Thinking
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Integrative Complexity Coding Raises Integratively Complex Issues
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President Clinton's Policy Dilemmas
Leader Complexity in Personal and Professional Crises
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Integrative Complexity and British Decisions during the Munich and Polish Crises
Laboratory Tests of a Motivational-Perceptual Model of Conflict Escalation
Political Rhetoric of Leaders under Stress in the Gulf Crisis
Stability and Change in Belief Systems
The Integrative Complexity of American Decision Makers in The Cuban Missile Crisis
Individuals, Institutions, and Inflation
Can Xi Jinping be the next Mao Zedong? Using the Big Five Model to Study Political Leadership
An Integrative Complexity Analysis of Religious and Irreligious Thinking
Online Engagement Between Opposing Political Protest Groups via Social Media is Linked to Physical Violence of Offline Encounters
Ideologically Motivated Perceptions of Complexity
The Language of Political Aggression
Psychology and Deterrence
Strategic Military Deception
Intelligence and the problem of strategic surprise∗
Surprise Attack
Warning and Response
The Logic of Surprise
Indices of World Tension in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Hindsight and Foresight
Integrative Complexity of Communications in International Crises
War, Peace, and Integrative Complexity
A Cognitive Analysis of Japan's 1941 Decision for War
Integrative complexity in the corresponding of literary figures
Revolutionary leaders
| Unique citing works | 49 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,07 |
| Citation span | 1980 - 2026 (47) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 49 |