Does Complex or Simple Rhetoric Win Elections? An Integrative Complexity Analysis of U.S. Presidential Campaigns

Bibliographic Data

ID7351900
AuthorsLucian Gideon Conway (0000-0002-6919-4320, University of Montana), Lucian Gideon Conway III, Laura Janelle Gornick (University of Montana), Chelsea Burfeind (University of Montana), Paul Mandella (University of Montana), Andrea Kuenzli (University of Montana), Shannon C Houck (0000-0002-8967-9317, University of Montana), Deven Theresa Fullerton (University of Montana)
Year2012
Volume33
Issue5
Pages599-618
Publication date2012-08-17
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenuePolitical Psychology (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0162-895X • E-ISSN: 1467-9221
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/j.1467-9221.2012.00910.x
OpenAlexW2113627493
LanguageEN
Citations received26
References cited44

Research suggests that the integrative complexity of political rhetoric tends to drop during election season, but little research to date directly addresses if this drop in complexity serves to increase or decrease electoral success. The two present studies help fill this gap. Study 1 demonstrates that, during the Democratic Party primary debates in 2003–2004, the eventual winners of the party nomination showed a steeper drop in integrative complexity as the election season progressed than nonwinning candidates. Study 2 presents laboratory evidence from the most recent presidential campaign demonstrating that, while the complexity of Obama's rhetoric had little impact on college students' subsequent intentions to vote for him, the complexity of McCain's rhetoric was significantly positively correlated with their likelihood of voting for him. Taken together, this research is inconsistent with an unqualified simple is effective view of the complexity‐success relationship. Rather, it is more consistent with a compensatory view: Effective use of complexity (or simplicity) may compensate for perceived weaknesses. Thus, appropriately timed shifts in complexity levels, and/or violations of negative expectations relevant to complexity, may be an effective means of winning elections. Surprisingly, mere simplicity as such seems largely ineffective

Democracy · Economics · Epistemology · Nomination · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Presidential election · Presidential system · Rhetoric · Simplicity · Voting · Cultural Differences and Values · Law · Psychology · Social and Cultural Dynamics · Social and Intergroup Psychology · Social Psychology

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