Alliance Behavior in Balance of Power Systems
Applying a Poisson Model to Nineteenth-Century Europe
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 7595435 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Patrick J Mcgowan (University of South Carolina), Robert M Rood (Southern California University for Professional Studies) |
| Year | 1975 |
| Volume | 69 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 859-870 |
| Publication date | 1975-09-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Political Science Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0003-0554 • E-ISSN: 1537-5943 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.2307/1958395 |
| OpenAlex | W1981367553 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 32 |
| References cited | 43 |
This paper is a partial systematic test of Morton A. Kaplan's “theory” of alliance behavior in balance of power international systems first proposed in his well-known System and Process in International Politics (1957). Three hypotheses are inferred from Kaplan's writings predicting that in a stable balance of power system, (a) alliances will occur randomly with respect to time; (b) the time intervals between alliances will also be randomly distributed; and (c) a decline in systemic alliance formation rates precedes system changing events, such as general war. We check these hypotheses by applying probability theory, specifically a Poisson model, to the analysis of new data on fifty-five alliances among the five major European powers during the period 1814–1914. Because our research questions are so general, our findings should not be regarded as definitive; however, the data very strongly support our hypotheses. We conclude that Kaplan's verbal model of a balance of power international system has had its credibility enhanced as a result of this paper
Alliance · Balance (ability · Balance theory · Credibility · Econometrics · Economics · International relations · Poisson distribution · Political science · Politics · Power (physics · Sociology · Statistics · Culture, Economy, and Development Studies · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law · Mathematics · Political Conflict and Governance · Psychology · Social Psychology
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Power and International Relations
Política entre las naciones
New Approaches to International Relations.
Comparative Foreign Policy
Politics Among Nations
European Alliances and Alignments, 1871–1890
The study of alliances
The Precarious Balance
Unity and Disintegration in International Alliances
Comparing Foreign Policies
A Diplomatic History of Europe Since the Congress of Vienna
Symmetry and Polarization in the European International System, 1870 - 1879
Mathematical Models of Instability and a Theory of Diffusion
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Alliance Polarization, Cross-Cutting, and International War, 1815-1964
The Balance of Power in International History
Some theoretic characteristics of economic and political coalitions
Stochastic models of war alliances
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| Unique citing works | 32 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,64 |
| Citation span | 1976 - 2006 (31) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 32 |