Discovering the determinants of house prices dynamics in Poland using Bayesian model averaging
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 7758907 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Radosław Trojanek (0000-0002-8614-9484, Poznań University of Economics and Business), Michal Gluszak (0000-0001-7614-229X, Poznań University of Economics and Business), Pawel Kufel (0000-0003-4769-8066, Poznań University of Economics and Business), Maria Trojanek (0000-0002-6237-4281, Poznań University of Economics and Business) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 16 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 73-109 |
| Publication date | 2023-12-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Economics & Sociology (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2071-789X • E-ISSN: 2306-3459 |
| Publisher | Centre of Sociological Research, Szczecin, Poland (PUBLISHER • PL) |
| DOI | 10.14254/2071-789x.2023/16-4/4 |
| OpenAlex | W4390743124 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 64 |
We examine the price drivers in 18 capital housing markets in Poland from 2004 to 2021. Using the Bayesian Model Averaging method, we discovered that some financial elements explain house price changes more consistently than conventional economic and demographic variables. The dynamics of house prices in most cities were defined explicitly by financial factors – mortgage market activity, mortgage interest rate, and terms and conditions of granting mortgages. Additionally, the stock market played a vital role in house price movement in selected cities. Economic (regional GDP, salaries, unemployment) and demographic (migration) factors were significant predictors of housing price dynamics only for particular cities. Our study closes the knowledge gap on factors influencing home price dynamics in Poland and other developing nations that have gone through systemic change. In the case of Eastern European countries, we have limited knowledge of those linkages
Bayesian probability · Dynamics (music) · Econometrics · Economics · Financial economics · Financial market · Geography · House price · Macroeconomics · Stock (firearms) · Unemployment · Finance · Housing Market and Economics · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Spatial and Panel Data Analysis
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| Unique citing works | 3 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,5 |
| Citation span | 2024 - 2024 (1) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 3 |