The Demographic Race between India and China

Bibliographic Data

ID9744114
AuthorsGuillaume Marois (0000-0002-2701-6286, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, corresponding author), Stuart Gietel-Basten (0000-0002-5818-8283, University of Hong Kong), Wolfgang Lutz (0000-0001-7975-8145, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
Year2025
Volume44
Issue4
Publication date2025-08-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenuePopulation Research and Policy Review (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0167-5923 • E-ISSN: 1573-7829
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1007/s11113-025-09966-y
OpenAlexW4411610129
LanguageEN
References cited16

As India surpasses China as the world’s most populous country, questions arise as to whether this demographic shift will lead India to overtake China economically. This paper examines this demographic race beyond population size. Using multi-dimensional demographic projections by age, sex, education, and labor force participation, we show that China’s current apparent demographic travails will not necessarily threaten its leading status relative to India for most of the next half century given India’s disadvantage in educational attainment and very low female labor force participation. India’s young population could provide a demographic dividend later this century, but only if it makes substantial investments in education and increasing women’s labor force participation rates. The demographic race between giants will be determined more by human capital development than simply by total population size

China · Geography · Race (biology · Socioeconomics · Sociology · Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences · Demography · Gender Studies · Migration and Labor Dynamics · Social and Economic Development in India

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