Scenarios for sustainable futures beyond GDP growth 2050

Bibliographic Data

ID9844740
AuthorsÅsa Svenfelt (0000-0002-0218-9746, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, corresponding author), Eva C Alfredsson (0000-0003-1853-867X, KTH Royal Institute of Technology), Karin Bradley (0000-0002-6882-2735, KTH Royal Institute of Technology), Eléonore Fauré (0000-0003-4389-8984, KTH Royal Institute of Technology), Göran Finnveden (0000-0002-5600-0726, KTH Royal Institute of Technology), Paul Fuehrer (Södertörn University), Ulrika Gunnarsson-Östling (0000-0003-3101-5902, KTH Royal Institute of Technology), Karolina Isaksson (0000-0002-3613-7039, Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute), Mikael Malmaeus (0000-0002-6465-2257, IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute), Tove Malmqvist (0000-0003-2949-422X, KTH Royal Institute of Technology), Kristian Skånberg (KTH Royal Institute of Technology), Peter Stigson (0000-0002-3831-0886, IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute), Åsa Aretun (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute), Katarina Buhr (IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute), Pernilla Hagbert (0000-0001-8208-820X, KTH Royal Institute of Technology), Erika Öhlund (Södertörn University)
Year2019
Volume111
Pages1-14
Publication date2019-08-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueFutures (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0016-3287 • E-ISSN: 1873-6378
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.futures.2019.05.001
OpenAlexW2945183344
LanguageEN
Citations received27
References cited55

The idea of continued economic growth is increasingly questioned and critically analysed on the basis of its potential negative sustainability impact. Along with the critique, visions and strategies for alternative systems need also be brought onto the agenda. The aim of this paper is to present the qualitative content of scenarios that explore sustainability strategies for Swedish society when economic growth is not seen as an end in itself, and the goal is instead other values/goals that society might wish to achieve. Multi-target backcasting scenarios are developed, that illustrate future states in which four sustainability targets (climate, land use, participation and resource security) are to be attained. The focus of the four scenarios is: 1) collaborative economy, 2) local self-sufficiency, 3) automation for quality of life, and 4) circular economy in the welfare state. In the paper, we also present the process of the development of the scenarios and feedback from stakeholders. Although the focus is on Sweden, the process and scenarios should also be relevant for other similar countries. The scenarios are discussed in terms of their relevance and their purpose, the fulfilment of the sustainability goals and the multi-target approach

Backcasting · Business · Economics · Environmental economics · Environmental resource management · Futures contract · Futures studies · Political science · Process (computing · Public economics · Relevance (law · Sociology · Sustainability · Vision · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Computer Science · Innovative Approaches in Technology and Social Development · Sustainability and Climate Change Governance

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